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Bitcoin’s dormant supply has reached a historic milestone, with coins untouched for over a decade now accumulating faster than new BTC is mined.
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This unprecedented trend, emerging post-April 2024 halving, signals a shift in Bitcoin’s scarcity dynamics, driven by increasing long-term holder conviction and institutional accumulation.
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According to Fidelity Digital Assets, as of June 8, an average of 566 BTC per day enters the “ancient supply” category, surpassing the daily issuance of 450 BTC, underscoring a new era in Bitcoin’s supply behavior.
Bitcoin’s decade-old dormant supply now outpaces new issuance, reshaping scarcity narratives amid growing institutional holdings and market volatility.
Historic Growth in Bitcoin’s Ancient Supply Signals Changing Market Dynamics
For the first time in Bitcoin’s history, the volume of BTC held inactive for ten years or more is increasing at a rate exceeding the network’s current production of new coins. This phenomenon began shortly after the April 2024 halving, marking a pivotal moment in Bitcoin’s supply economics. Fidelity Digital Assets’ June 18 report highlights that as of early June, 566 BTC per day are transitioning into the “ancient supply” category—coins that have remained unmoved for at least a decade. This rate outstrips the post-halving daily issuance of 450 BTC, indicating a tightening supply as long-term holders consolidate their positions.
Long-Term Holders and Institutional Influence Redefining Bitcoin Scarcity
The surge in dormant BTC is often interpreted as a strong signal of investor conviction, reflecting holders’ confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term value proposition. Alternatively, some coins may be permanently lost due to inaccessible private keys, further reducing the effective circulating supply. Notably, over 3.4 million BTC—more than 17% of the total supply—has remained untouched for ten years or more, including coins mined during Bitcoin’s inception period. The legendary figure Satoshi Nakamoto is recognized as the first 10-year holder since January 2019, emphasizing the longevity of early Bitcoin accumulation.
Institutional Accumulation and Future Supply Projections
Fidelity’s analysis reveals that public companies are playing an increasingly significant role in expanding the ancient supply. As of June 8, 27 publicly listed firms collectively hold over 800,000 BTC, representing a substantial portion of the long-term supply cohort. If current trends persist, projections estimate that ancient supply could constitute up to 30% of all circulating Bitcoin by 2035, underscoring the growing institutional footprint in the market. This accumulation trend supports the narrative of Bitcoin as a scarce digital asset, potentially exerting upward pressure on prices as supply tightens.
Market Volatility and the Behavior of Long-Term Holders
Despite the overall strengthening of long-term holding patterns, recent market conditions have introduced increased volatility among dormant supply holders. Since the 2024 U.S. election, the report notes that ancient supply has declined on approximately 10% of days—quadruple the historical average. For coins held five years or longer, this volatility is even more pronounced, with net outflows observed on 39% of days. These fluctuations help explain the choppy price movements seen in early 2025 and highlight that even seasoned holders may adjust positions amid uncertain macroeconomic and geopolitical environments.
Implications for Bitcoin Price and Market Outlook
While scarcity driven by decreasing issuance and growing ancient supply is a critical factor, Fidelity emphasizes that it is not the sole determinant of Bitcoin’s price trajectory. The interplay of institutional demand, new exchange-traded fund (ETF) products, and broader market sentiment will continue to influence price dynamics. However, the convergence of reduced supply availability and increasing long-term holder dominance creates a favorable environment for potential upward price momentum, especially if institutional adoption accelerates.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s historic shift toward an expanding dormant supply exceeding new issuance marks a significant evolution in its supply dynamics. The growing influence of long-term holders and institutional investors is reshaping Bitcoin’s scarcity narrative, potentially setting the stage for future price appreciation. Nevertheless, recent volatility among these holders serves as a reminder of the market’s complexity and the multifaceted factors impacting Bitcoin’s valuation. Investors should monitor these supply trends alongside broader market developments to better understand Bitcoin’s evolving landscape.
