Matrixport’s latest weekly report highlights a notable shift in the Federal Reserve’s stance following the June 18, 2025 FOMC meeting. Initially, Chair Powell signaled a hawkish approach; however, within days, the Fed’s tone softened considerably. This pivot was marked by several Fed officials adopting dovish rhetoric, with Powell himself presenting a more tempered outlook during congressional testimony. Political dynamics, including President Trump’s public criticism of the Fed’s tightening policies, appear to have influenced this recalibration of communication strategy.
Inflation has moderated to 2.38%, nearing the Fed’s 2% target, thereby weakening the case for sustained restrictive monetary policy. Recent comments from Governors Waller and Bowman suggest that discussions around potential rate cuts at the July FOMC meeting are gaining traction. Additionally, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee downplayed inflationary risks from tariffs, reinforcing market expectations of a dovish Fed. Despite earlier warnings about tariff-driven inflation spikes, data has not supported these concerns, while the unemployment rate has remained steady at 4.2% for almost a year.
In the crypto markets, Bitcoin’s price briefly tested the 21-week moving average at $98,532 following geopolitical tensions triggered by U.S. airstrikes in Iran. This technical level is critical as it delineates bullish and bearish momentum. Failure to reclaim this support promptly could expose Bitcoin to a summer correction. Nonetheless, the Fed’s dovish pivot is expected to provide underlying support, potentially enhancing the risk-reward profile for investors considering dip-buying strategies, especially if clearer signals of rate cuts emerge ahead of the September policy meeting.