Bitcoin is currently in a mature, Bitcoin speculative phase driven by a new cohort of whale wallets that now control a larger share of supply; 97% of all-time buyers remain in profit, while open interest and liquidations signal short-term volatility.
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New whale cohort accelerating accumulation and strategic selling.
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97% of all-time BTC buyers remain in profit; realized-price metrics show sustained long-term conviction.
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Open interest sits near $34B; Hyperliquid OI fell from >$4.6B to $2.43B, highlighting recent derivative-led liquidations.
Bitcoin speculative phase: new whale cohort increases control of supply; 97% of all-time buyers in profit. Read COINOTAG’s data-driven analysis and recovery outlook.
Published: October 15, 2025 · Updated: October 15, 2025 · COINOTAG
What is Bitcoin’s current market phase?
Bitcoin speculative phase describes the market’s present stage: widespread price appreciation accompanied by strategic accumulation and targeted profit-taking. On-chain metrics show long-term holders largely profitable, while a wave of new whale wallets has increased concentration of supply and contributed to episodic volatility.
Data referenced in this report includes insights from Bitcoin Magazine Pro, CryptoQuant, Hyperliquid, and the Crypto Fear and Greed Index (all cited as plain text sources). COINOTAG analysis integrates publicly reported on-chain statistics and derivatives data to provide a fact-based view of market dynamics.
Based on realized price, BTC holders are still not feeling anxiety, though this cycle has not touched the euphoria and greed stage. | Source: Bitcoin Magazine ProHow are new whales reshaping Bitcoin supply and market behavior?
New whale wallets—defined in recent on-chain reports as accounts accumulating between 100 and 1,000 BTC—have become materially more active in 2025. These wallets now account for a growing portion of circulating supply. Activity patterns show a mix of accumulation and selective profit realization, rather than blanket long-term hodling.
Short-term consequences include increased concentration risk and episodic price pressure when these wallets realize gains. Over the medium term, as some wallets mature, COINOTAG expects a potential holding wave that may reduce float and support higher price baselines. Analysts cite that drawdowns in this cycle typically stayed below 25%, with derivative unwind events driving most of the recent volatility.
Frequently Asked Questions
How many BTC holders are still in profit after the 2025 peak?
Approximately 97% of all-time Bitcoin buyers remain in profit according to realized-price and Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) metrics. This suggests broad long-term conviction despite recent pullbacks; NUPL has not yet entered historical euphoria ranges. (Source: Bitcoin Magazine Pro, CryptoQuant — cited as plain text.)
Will Bitcoin crash further after recent liquidations?
Short-term downside remains possible. Recent record liquidations reduced open interest—overall OI near $34B and Hyperliquid OI declining from >$4.6B to $2.43B—indicating some capitulation among leveraged positions. However, broad holder profitability and institutional flows reduce the likelihood of a systemic collapse. Monitor liquidatable price bands around $111,000–$114,000 for tactical risk.
A larger number of new whales traded strategically during the 2025 market cycle, accelerating their market presence in the past months. | Source: CryptoquantKey Takeaways
- New whale dominance: A fresh cohort of wallets (100–1,000 BTC) now controls a larger share of supply, altering market concentration dynamics.
- Majority in profit: Realized-price metrics indicate 97% of all-time buyers are profitable, signalling sustained long-term belief.
- Derivatives-driven volatility: Open interest contraction—overall near $34B and Hyperliquid down to $2.43B—points to derivative liquidations as the primary driver of recent downswings; track $111k–$114k bands for liquidation risk.
Conclusion
COINOTAG’s review concludes that the Bitcoin speculative phase in 2025 is characterized by strategic accumulation, profit-taking by a new cohort of whales, and derivative-led volatility. On-chain indicators and realized profit metrics point to durable holder conviction even as trading ranges remain jittery. Market participants should monitor concentration metrics, open interest trends, and the NUPL bands for signs of transitioning between speculative and euphoric stages. For continued coverage and data-led updates from COINOTAG, watch on-chain indicators and derivatives flows closely.
