Bitcoin’s Correlation with S&P 500 Reaches New Heights Amid Positive Macroeconomic Signals

• The S&P 500’s increasing alignment with cryptocurrencies shows how macroeconomic factors are now impacting both markets similarly.
• Bloomberg data reveals a 40-day correlation coefficient of 0.67 between the largest 100 cryptocurrencies and the S&P 500.
• “Correlations between crypto prices and broad risk asset indices have been on the rise and are likely to remain elevated for a while,” said FalconX’s David Lawant.

The rising correlation between cryptocurrencies and the S&P 500 indicates significant macroeconomic impacts on both markets.

Historical Correlation Trends and Current Data

According to Bloomberg, there is a notable rise in the correlation between cryptocurrencies and the S&P 500, a trend not seen since mid-2022. The 40-day correlation coefficient between the top 100 cryptocurrencies and the S&P 500 is currently at 0.67, only surpassed by a 0.72 mark in the second quarter of 2022. During that period, Bitcoin fell to approximately $19,000, mirroring the S&P 500’s decline to 3,674.84 points. Since then, the S&P 500 has surged by 35% to reach a current high of 5702.55 points, while Bitcoin has risen by 69%, positioning it around $63,500.

Perceptions from Key Market Analysts

David Han and David Duong from Coinbase have reported a slightly higher correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 at 0.69. A correlation coefficient of 1 signifies a perfect positive correlation, while -1 indicates a perfect negative correlation. A coefficient close to zero would imply no correlation. The increasing positive correlation points to shared influences from broader economic indicators, stirring market behaviors in both sectors.

Macroeconomic Outlook and Its Influence

David Lawant, Head of Research at FalconX, suggested that the correlation between equities and cryptocurrencies is likely to persist, influenced by macroeconomic conditions. He emphasized that a potential soft landing for the U.S. economy—where monetary policies manage to curb inflation while supporting steady economic growth without leading to a recession—could maintain this correlation. Lawant also noted that decreasing interest rates might create a favorable investment environment for cryptocurrencies, aligning with broader economic expectations.

Market Dynamics and Future Implications

Chris Rhine of Galaxy Digital highlighted ongoing consolidation in both risk assets and cryptocurrencies, setting the stage for a potential market upturn. With positive factors currently outweighing negatives, Rhine pointed to the Federal Reserve’s recent 50 basis-point rate cut as a positive driver for digital asset prices. He also mentioned that the approaching U.S. presidential election, with Vice President Kamala Harris showing a supportive stance towards the crypto sector, adds to the positive sentiment.

Conclusion

The increasing correlation between cryptocurrencies and the S&P 500 underscores the intertwined nature of these markets. As macroeconomic factors continue to influence both, investors can anticipate continued alignment in their movements. The current market sentiment, buoyed by favorable policy changes and economic conditions, paves the way for a potentially bullish phase for cryptocurrencies, driven by both technical and fundamental indicators.