Bitcoin MVRV Falls Below 365‑Day SMA as History Repeats, Targeting $115,000–$190,000 by End of Bull Market

COINOTAG News reports that CryptoQuant analyst ShayanMarkets notes the Bitcoin MVRV—market value to realized value ratio—has recently slipped below its 365-day moving average, a historically meaningful signal that has preceded cyclical bottoms. The current MVRV is near 1.9, modestly under the 365-day SMA, suggesting a potential derisking phase for the market.

Historically, each instance where the MVRV dipped below the 365-day SMA coincided with notable rebounds: approximately 135% in mid-2021, about 100% in June 2022, and roughly 196% in early 2024.

ShayanMarkets contends this pattern may indicate a return to an undervalued range where long-term holders resume accumulation, aligning with a more measured pace of upside rather than speculative spikes.

If history repeats, analysts see a plausible upside trajectory toward the end of the current cycle, with a target corridor around $115,000 to $190,000 for Bitcoin, conditioned on macro liquidity and market dynamics.