Glassnode: Bitcoin Holds on Short-Term Holder Cost Basis as ETF Flows Return While Facing $114K–$118K Supply Cluster

Glassnode’s latest on-chain review highlights that Bitcoin market dynamics continue to hinge on the short-term holder cost basis, which has acted as a reliable support since May 2025. Price faces resistance from a dense supply cluster around $114,000–$118,000, while a moderation in long-term holder distribution and the return of ETF funds point to stabilizing demand.

Sentiment metrics, including RVT and the Fear & Greed Index, signal a cooling phase with the market leaning toward consolidation rather than capitulation. In the options market, a record expiry reshaped positions as open interest flows re-enter the fourth quarter, reflecting tactical repositioning by participants.

Volatility has eased, skewness is trending toward neutral, and the term structure retains a positive spread with a stronger back end. Fund flows show measured upside interest while traders’ gamma remains balanced, suppressing hedging-driven volatility—collectively suggesting a reset to a more neutral, constructive environment.