- Fidelity’s Director of Global Macro, Jurrien Timmer, recently commented on whether Bitcoin or gold serves as a more reliable store of value, considering different economic scenarios.
- He emphasized the concept of “fiscal dominance,” indicating that an expanding money supply threatens the purchasing power of the currency.
- Timmer’s analysis suggests that while Bitcoin and gold are deemed inflation-resistant, the current economic environment hasn’t fully realized this potential.
Exploring the ongoing debate between Bitcoin and gold as effective inflation hedges.
The Theory Behind Money Supply and Asset Valuation
Timmer’s argument is anchored in “fiscal dominance.” This concept illustrates how government’s expansion of the money supply can undermine a currency’s purchasing power. Historical data of the M2 money supply and CPI relationship corroborate his point about impending inflation.
Bitcoin’s Dual Identity: Digital and Financial Asset
Bitcoin is frequently termed “digital gold” or “gold 2.0” due to its properties similar to gold. However, Timmer notes that for Bitcoin to align closely with gold, fiat monetary expansions need to exceed normal growth trends.
The Recent Impact of Monetary Policy
The COVID-19 pandemic initially led to an increase in the M2 money supply. However, the Federal Reserve’s subsequent tightening of monetary policy made this spike temporary. This suggests that Bitcoin and gold might still be premature in their roles as absolute value storage.
Interestingly, Bitcoin has surged to $69,523 following a recent CPI report indicating reduced inflation, potentially strengthening its position as a store of value.
The Changing Correlation Between Bitcoin and Treasury Yields
Recent data from Barchart shows that Bitcoin’s correlation with the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield has dropped significantly to -53, its lowest in 14 years. This indicates that Bitcoin may be evolving into a unique asset class, less influenced by traditional fiscal instruments.
The Implications of a Decoupled Bitcoin
With the reduced correlation, Bitcoin appears to be navigating independently from conventional financial systems. This detachment could potentially enhance its role as a non-traditional hedge against fiscal instability.
Conclusion
While Bitcoin and gold share common limitations as stores of value, their efficacy largely depends on economic conditions that are still unfolding. Timmer’s insights underscore the necessity to monitor fiscal trends closely to determine the best hedging strategies.
