According to a recent report by Steno Research, MicroStrategy’s (MSTR) substantial premium over its Bitcoin (BTC) holdings appears unsustainable. Analyst Mads Eberhardt indicated that the recent 10-to-1 stock split conducted by the firm could contribute to this shift, with the premium reportedly spiking to nearly 300%. This valuation raises concerns, as it seems to significantly diverge from a straightforward assessment of its underlying assets and business fundamentals.
The anticipated introduction of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) options in the U.S. market could further diminish investor interest in MicroStrategy stock, as more individuals may prefer direct exposure to Bitcoin rather than indirect exposure through the company. As regulatory conditions surrounding cryptocurrencies improve, it is likely that investors will gravitate towards holding Bitcoin directly.
Steno anticipates a continuation of this trend, particularly if regulatory stances remain favorable, implying that the future demand for MicroStrategy’s premium may not hold, especially given that it typically hovered below 200% during previous crypto market rallies. The dynamics suggest that maintaining the current premium will depend heavily on substantial buying demand in the forthcoming quarters.