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Bitcoin’s “ancient” supply—coins held for over a decade—is expanding faster than new coins are mined, signaling a tightening supply amid growing institutional interest.
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Fidelity Digital Assets highlights that daily additions to this long-term holder pool now outpace daily Bitcoin issuance, marking a pivotal shift in market dynamics.
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According to COINOTAG, this trend, combined with accelerating institutional inflows, underpins a compelling case for Bitcoin potentially reaching the $1 million milestone.
Bitcoin’s ancient supply growth and rising institutional demand suggest a tightening market that could propel BTC toward $1 million by 2026.
Bitcoin Ancient Supply Growth Outpaces New Issuance: Implications for Market Scarcity
The recent report from Fidelity Digital Assets reveals a significant supply-side development: the number of Bitcoins held for over 10 years is increasing at a rate of approximately 550 BTC per day, surpassing the 450 BTC mined daily. This shift indicates that more coins are becoming illiquid, effectively reducing the available supply in circulation. Currently, over 17% of Bitcoin’s total supply is classified as “ancient,” representing roughly 3.4 million BTC valued at $360 billion based on current prices.
This growing illiquidity reflects strong holder conviction, with daily decreases in ancient supply occurring less than 3% of the time. Projections suggest that by 2026, up to 30% of Bitcoin’s supply could become illiquid, further constraining market availability. Such scarcity dynamics are critical as they influence price discovery, potentially driving upward pressure on BTC’s valuation.
Institutional Inflows Amplify Bitcoin’s Supply-Demand Imbalance
Institutional investors are playing an increasingly pivotal role in Bitcoin’s market evolution. Bitwise estimates that inflows could reach $120 billion by 2025 and surge to $300 billion by 2026 under base case scenarios. These inflows stem from diverse sources, including nation-states reallocating portions of gold reserves, U.S. states adopting Bitcoin allocations, wealth management platforms incorporating BTC into portfolios, and public companies expanding their holdings.
In a bullish scenario, inflows could exceed $426 billion, absorbing over 4 million BTC—nearly 19% of the total supply. This substantial demand, combined with the expanding ancient supply, suggests a market environment where a significant portion of Bitcoin becomes illiquid, intensifying scarcity and supporting higher price levels.
Assessing the Path to $1 Million Bitcoin: Supply Constraints and Market Dynamics
Achieving a $1 million price per Bitcoin requires a market capitalization of approximately $21 trillion, a tenfold increase from the current $2.10 trillion. With 94.66% of the 21 million maximum supply already mined, the fixed supply and increasing illiquidity create a foundation for substantial price appreciation.
Historical halving events have demonstrated that reduced supply growth combined with rising demand can trigger significant rallies. The current trend of increasing ancient supply aligns with this pattern, as the liquid supply diminishes and institutional demand intensifies.
However, market volatility remains a factor. Post-2024 U.S. election data shows that ancient supply decreased on 10% of trading days—four times the historical average—indicating that even long-term holders may liquidate during uncertain periods. Similarly, five-year holder supply declined on 39% of days, correlating with sideways price action in early 2025. These fluctuations suggest that while scarcity is increasing, supply can temporarily expand under certain conditions, potentially moderating price gains.
Market Sentiment and Sidelined Demand: Catalysts for Future Growth
Despite current risk-averse policies at major financial institutions like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, which manage $60 trillion in assets, Bitwise identifies $35 billion in sidelined demand for Bitcoin in 2024. The bear case projects inflows exceeding $150 billion, while the bull case anticipates over $426 billion, underscoring significant latent demand that could materialize as market conditions evolve.
This latent demand, combined with the structural supply constraints from ancient Bitcoin accumulation, forms a compelling narrative for Bitcoin’s long-term appreciation. Investors and market participants should monitor these dynamics closely as they may signal transformative shifts in Bitcoin’s valuation trajectory.
Conclusion
The convergence of expanding ancient Bitcoin supply and accelerating institutional inflows is reshaping Bitcoin’s supply-demand landscape. While challenges such as market volatility and periodic supply increases remain, the overarching trend points toward increased scarcity and heightened demand. These factors collectively support the thesis that Bitcoin’s price could realistically approach $1 million in the coming years, marking a significant milestone in its evolution as a digital asset.
