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Bitcoin’s 30-day active supply has declined by 17%, indicating a notable slowdown in on-chain activity despite prices holding firm above $100,000 in mid-2025.
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This recent dip mirrors a similar 17% decrease observed in September 2024, which historically preceded a significant upward rally in Bitcoin’s price.
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According to on-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr., while short-term supply activity has cooled, long-term network metrics continue to reflect robust growth and sustained investor engagement.
Bitcoin’s active supply drops 17% amid stable $100K price, signaling short-term cooling but long-term network strength remains intact in 2025.
Bitcoin’s Active Supply Decline Signals Short-Term Market Consolidation
Bitcoin’s recent 17% decline in 30-day active supply highlights a significant reduction in the volume of coins moving on-chain. This metric, which measures the percentage change in coins transacted compared to the previous month, serves as a critical indicator of market participation and momentum. A negative reading of this magnitude often points to increased holding behavior or trader hesitation, suggesting a phase of consolidation within the market. Despite this, Bitcoin’s price resilience above the $100,000 threshold underscores ongoing investor confidence and a strong underlying demand.
Historical Patterns of Supply Activity and Price Movements
Examining Bitcoin’s price history reveals a consistent correlation between supply activity and market trends. For instance, during the 2021 bull run, the surge from $10,000 to nearly $70,000 was accompanied by rising active supply percentages, reflecting heightened trading and investor enthusiasm. Conversely, the bearish period in 2022 saw a marked decline in supply activity, aligning with price drops to the $15,000–$20,000 range and diminished market participation. These patterns emphasize the value of monitoring supply metrics as predictive tools for market shifts.
Long-Term Metrics Indicate Sustained Network Growth Despite Short-Term Slowdown
While the short-term supply activity has cooled, longer-term indicators paint a more optimistic picture. The 365-day active supply change remains stable, suggesting that overall network engagement and coin movement over extended periods continue to support Bitcoin’s growth narrative. This divergence between short and long-term metrics indicates that while traders may be pausing, long-term holders and institutional participants maintain steady involvement, reinforcing Bitcoin’s market foundation.
Market Implications and Analyst Insights
On-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr. highlights that the current -17% drop in active supply is reminiscent of previous market corrections that ultimately led to bullish reversals. He notes, “This level of decline has historically been a precursor to significant rallies.” Such insights underscore the importance of supply activity as a leading indicator for potential price action. Investors and traders should closely monitor these metrics to gauge market sentiment and anticipate upcoming trends.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s 17% decline in 30-day active supply signals a temporary cooling in on-chain activity amid sustained price strength above $100,000. While this suggests short-term consolidation, long-term supply metrics continue to reflect healthy network growth and investor confidence. Monitoring these supply dynamics provides valuable insights into Bitcoin’s market trajectory, helping stakeholders navigate potential volatility and capitalize on future opportunities.
