Bitcoin is expected to dip below $100,000 amid U.S.-China trade tensions before surging to a year-end target of $200,000, according to Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick. This short-lived selloff follows a 12% drop from its all-time high of $126,000, driven by tariff fears.
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Trade tensions trigger Bitcoin selloff: U.S. tariffs on China have fueled investor caution, pushing Bitcoin down 12% in 16 days.
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Gold outperforms initially: As a safe-haven asset, gold rose while Bitcoin fell, but recent shifts show Bitcoin rebounding.
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Historical strength in fall months: Bitcoin averages 19.8% gains in October and 46% in November since 2013, per CoinGlass data.
Bitcoin price prediction signals a dip below $100,000 due to U.S.-China tariffs, but experts forecast $200,000 by year-end. Stay informed on crypto trends—subscribe for updates!
Will Bitcoin Dip Below $100,000 Amid Trade Tensions?
Bitcoin price prediction from Standard Chartered’s Geoff Kendrick indicates a likely temporary drop below $100,000 as investors react to escalating U.S.-China tariff disputes. In a recent analysis, Kendrick described this as an inevitable but short-lived “fear-driven selloff,” stemming from broader trade uncertainties. Despite the current price hovering around $108,200, historical patterns suggest a quick recovery, with the asset poised for significant gains later in the year.
The cryptocurrency market has faced volatility since Bitcoin reached its all-time high of $126,000 just over two weeks ago. According to data from CoinGecko, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization has declined approximately 12% in that period. This downturn aligns with heightened geopolitical risks, particularly the ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and China over tariffs that could impact global trade flows.
Kendrick, the global head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, emphasized in his Wednesday note that while the dip may test the $100,000 psychological barrier, it could mark the final time Bitcoin trades in five-digit territory this year. He maintained his year-end target of $200,000 unchanged, implying a potential doubling from current levels in the coming months.
How Has Gold Performed Compared to Bitcoin Recently?
Gold, traditionally viewed as a safe-haven asset during economic uncertainty, has outperformed Bitcoin in recent months amid rising trade tensions. However, this dynamic appears to be shifting, with gold experiencing its sharpest daily drop in over a decade on Tuesday, falling from a record $4,381 per ounce to around $4,075 by Wednesday.
In contrast, Bitcoin showed resilience with an intra-day bounce coinciding with gold’s selloff, suggesting a potential “sell gold, buy Bitcoin” investor rotation. Kendrick noted this trend as constructive for establishing a Bitcoin price floor. Data from CoinGecko indicates Bitcoin was little changed at $108,200 on Wednesday, while larger cryptocurrencies like Ethereum also dipped slightly but remained stable overall.
Historically, such reversals have occurred during easing geopolitical pressures. For instance, analysts observed Bitcoin outperforming gold as U.S.-China tensions showed signs of de-escalation and strong third-quarter earnings bolstered Wall Street confidence. An upcoming inflation report, expected on Friday, could further influence these asset dynamics, with experts pointing to its role as a market wildcard.
Broader trade developments add layers to this comparison. While China remains the U.S.’s largest trading partner, efforts to strike deals with other nations like India could indirectly affect commodity prices. Reports from local media, such as Mint, suggest India may soon agree to limit oil purchases from Russia, contributing to a 2.3% rise in crude oil to $58.5 per barrel—a metric correlated with economic growth expectations.
Since Bitcoin’s peak two weeks ago, it has tested lows around $104,800, reminiscent of an April decline to $76,300 following White House announcements on reciprocal tariffs. Kendrick acknowledged uncertainty in pinpointing the exact bottom, stating that no one can predict precisely how far Bitcoin will fall before stabilizing. Yet, seasonal trends provide optimism: October and November have been Bitcoin’s strongest months since 2013, with average gains of 19.8% and 46%, respectively, according to CoinGlass. This has popularized the term “Uptober” among market observers, though the crypto landscape has evolved significantly with increased institutional involvement.
Gold’s recent plunge underscores potential vulnerabilities in traditional safe-havens. On Tuesday, as Bitcoin rebounded, gold’s drop highlighted shifting investor preferences toward digital assets during periods of relative stability. Kendrick anticipates more such flows in the medium term, which could reinforce Bitcoin’s recovery narrative.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the year-end Bitcoin price target according to Standard Chartered?
Standard Chartered’s Geoff Kendrick maintains a year-end Bitcoin price target of $200,000, unchanged despite current volatility. This forecast accounts for a short-term dip below $100,000 driven by trade tensions, followed by a strong rebound based on historical seasonal patterns and market maturation.
Why has Bitcoin’s price been falling recently?
Bitcoin’s recent price decline stems from investor reactions to U.S.-China tariff developments, sparking a fear-driven selloff that erased 12% from its all-time high. As geopolitical risks mount, traditional assets like gold initially gained, but easing tensions and positive earnings are helping Bitcoin stabilize around $108,200.
Key Takeaways
- Temporary dip expected: Bitcoin may fall below $100,000 soon due to trade fears, but this could be the last such occurrence this year.
- Gold-Bitcoin shift: Recent gold selloffs align with Bitcoin bounces, signaling potential investor rotation toward cryptocurrencies.
- Seasonal optimism: With strong historical performance in October and November, focus on long-term targets like $200,000 by year-end.
Conclusion
In summary, the Bitcoin price prediction landscape points to near-term challenges from U.S.-China trade tensions, potentially driving a dip below $100,000, while gold’s recent underperformance highlights evolving safe-haven preferences. Standard Chartered’s Geoff Kendrick’s outlook for $200,000 by year-end underscores Bitcoin’s resilience and growth potential. As markets navigate inflation reports and global deals, investors should monitor these dynamics closely for opportunities in the evolving cryptocurrency space—consider diversifying portfolios to capitalize on upcoming rallies.
