Axis Bank Recommends Buying Persistent Systems (PERSISTENT) and KPIT Technologies (KPIT) Post Strong Q4 Results in IT Sector Review

<ul>
  <li>The Indian IT services industry is facing near-term challenges due to the economic slowdown and weaker macroeconomic outlook.</li>
  <li>However, its long-term outlook remains robust with the economy showing signs of recovery.</li>
  <li>"After strong revenue growth momentum in FY22 and FY23, we believe IT services may face challenges on demand and margin fronts on account of the economic slowdown and macroeconomic uncertainties," said the brokerage.</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Discover the current state of the Indian IT services industry, its challenges, and future prospects in our detailed analysis.</strong></p>
<h2><strong>Economic Slowdown and Its Impact on IT Services</strong></h2>
<p>The Indian IT services industry is currently grappling with the adverse effects of an economic slowdown and a weaker macroeconomic outlook. According to a recent Q4 review note by Axis Securities, the industry, which saw strong revenue growth in FY22 and FY23, is now facing challenges on both the demand and margin fronts. The brokerage highlights that decision-making for automation projects has been delayed, contributing to a skeptical near-term outlook.</p>
<h3><strong>Resilient Deal Wins Amidst Challenges</strong></h3>
<p>Despite the economic headwinds, deal wins in the IT services sector have remained resilient. Axis Securities notes that this resilience gives confidence that automation spending will rebound strongly in the coming quarters. Industries such as retail and manufacturing continue to show strong demand, which is expected to regain momentum soon. The brokerage remains optimistic that most IT services companies will regain momentum as supply-side challenges ease and the macroeconomic environment stabilizes.</p>
<h2><strong>Q4 Earnings Highlights</strong></h2>
<p>The Q4FY24 earnings season revealed mixed results for the Indian IT services sector. Most IT companies reported disappointing revenue growth, reflecting subdued demand from major global economies. The BFSI sector experienced tepid growth with no immediate improvement in discretionary spending, though some recovery is expected in FY25. Verticals like Telecommunication and Hi-Tech also struggled to demonstrate strong growth, with many companies lacking near-term visibility.</p>
<h2><strong>Margin Performance</strong></h2>
<p>Margin performance for Q4FY24 was mixed across the sector. Tier-1 tech companies like TCS and Wipro showed strong execution with margin expansion, while TechM's margins began to recover from previously low levels. However, Tier-2 tech companies, which had previously excelled in margin defense, saw slight pressure on margins in FY24. Mid-cap IT services companies, which showed relative margin resilience through FY21-23, were affected by moderating growth in FY24. Only a modest recovery is expected in FY25.</p>
<h2><strong>Deal Wins and Future Outlook</strong></h2>
<p>Deal wins remained robust despite ongoing uncertainty. The demand for newer technologies such as AI, cloud transformations, data analytics, and IoT remains strong, with many companies closing all-time-high deals. This indicates a potential strong V-shaped recovery when macroeconomic factors turn positive. Axis Securities recommends a tactical approach, favoring TechM among Tier-1 techs and KPIT, Zensar, and Firstsource among Tier-2s.</p>
<h3><strong>Conclusion</strong></h3>
<p>In conclusion, while the Indian IT services industry faces near-term challenges due to economic slowdown and macroeconomic uncertainties, the long-term outlook remains positive. Resilient deal wins and strong demand in certain industries provide a silver lining. Investors are advised to adopt a tactical approach, focusing on companies with strong deal pipelines and margin resilience. The anticipated recovery in FY25 could present significant growth opportunities for well-positioned IT services firms.</p>