- According to a post by Luke Dash Jr., considering the current state of Bitcoin mining, it is suggested that waiting for 12 blocks (approximately 120 minutes) would be a safer approach.
- Jameson Lopp explains that the confirmation time required to be 99.9% certain that your transaction is irreversible depends on how much theoretical attack power an attacker could have relative to the total network hash rate.
- The Bitcoin transaction confirmation time can vary depending on the state of the network and the risk tolerance of the person receiving the transaction. Some centralized exchanges may find three blocks sufficient, depending on the deposited amount, while others may require more confirmations.
Bitcoin Core developer Luke Dash Jr. argues that longer confirmation times are necessary for transaction security.
Developer Talks About Confirmation Times
If someone were to ask you how many blocks (or minutes) one should wait to be sure that a Bitcoin (BTC) transaction is irreversible, the answer can sometimes be complex. The generally accepted “rule” suggests waiting for three to six blocks (approximately 30 to 60 minutes) to ensure transaction reliability. However, experts argue that this duration should be even longer, depending on how secure you want your transaction to be.
Recently, a post by Bitcoin Core developer Luke Dash Jr. suggested that, considering the current state of Bitcoin mining, waiting for 12 blocks (approximately 120 minutes) would be a safer approach. With this notion in mind, COINOTAG delved deeper into what constitutes a more secure confirmation time for Bitcoin transactions.
Bitcoin has a feature known as “probabilistic finality.” This means that the irreversibility of a transaction increases with each new block added to the block containing the transaction. Here’s an explanation of how this process works:
- When someone sends BTC from one address to another, this transaction goes to a “mempool,” which is a pending transaction pool. Here, it awaits inclusion in a block, which must be found by a miner.
- A miner creates a new block and includes transactions in it. They then announce this block to the network, and it is verified by other miners.
- According to the fundamental logic of Bitcoin, if another miner expends more computational power and broadcasts a block at the same height, the network follows the chain with the most computational work. This means that the first block could become invalid.
- Each new block increases the computational work on that particular chain, making it more difficult for the chain to become invalid. Therefore, as a transaction receives more confirmations in the blockchain, it becomes more secure.
Why Should Bitcoin Confirmation Times Increase?
According to Jameson Lopp, another well-known Bitcoin contributor, the confirmation time required to be 99.9% certain that your transaction is irreversible depends on how much theoretical attack power an attacker could have relative to the total network hash rate. For instance, for an attacker with 10% computational power, five blocks (approximately 50 minutes) might suffice, while an attacker with 45% computational power might require 340 blocks (approximately 56 hours).
This supports Luke Dash Jr.’s suggestion of requiring 12 confirmations, given that large Bitcoin mining pools like Foundry USA and Antpool, which together control around 20% of the global hash rate, are considered. These major mining pools exert significant control over the total network hash rate.
In conclusion, Bitcoin transaction confirmation times can vary depending on the state of the network and the risk tolerance of the person receiving the transaction. Some centralized exchanges may find three blocks sufficient, depending on the deposited amount, while others may require more confirmations. Therefore, it is important to carefully review the policies and security measures of the relevant exchange before conducting a transaction.
