Bitcoin Could Fall Below $108K, Potentially Triggering Mid‑Term Pullback Toward $70K–$95K, Analysts Say

• BTC dropped to $108K on Aug 29, a 13% pullback from $124K peak

• Short-term holder cost basis sits near $108.9K; a break can trigger multi-month weakness.

• On-chain and technical data suggest a mid-term bottom range between $93K and $95K if support fails.

Bitcoin price outlook: BTC fell to $108K after a 13% pullback from $124K. Read concise analysis, on-chain signals, expert quotes and near-term support levels.

What is the Bitcoin price outlook after the $110K break?

Bitcoin price outlook is cautious in the near term: BTC cracked $110K and moved to $108K, increasing short-term downside risk. If $108K fails as support, on-chain patterns and historical sell-offs point to a potential mid-term retracement toward the $93K–$95K range, while macro catalysts could restore the bull case.

How serious is the current correction and which indicators matter?

The correction amounts to roughly 13% from the $124K local high. That is inside the 30% pullback range typical of prior bull cycles, but caution is warranted.

Key indicators to watch:

• RSI divergence and price action comparisons to 2021 highs (analyst observation).
• Short-term holder cost basis (~$108.9K) from on-chain analytics.
• Macro signals: expected Fed rate cuts and U.S. Treasury issuance impacting liquidity.

Frequently Asked Questions

What support levels must Bitcoin hold to remain bullish?

Bitcoin must defend the $108K area as the immediate support. A confirmed hold above $108K coupled with renewed momentum would reduce the probability of a deeper correction and validate a near-term bullish stance.

How low could BTC fall if $108K breaks?

Historical patterns and on-chain cost-basis analysis indicate a statistical mid-term bottom between $93K and $95K after a decisive break of short-term holder support. A larger correlation-driven sell-off could see prices test $70K in an extreme scenario.

Why do macro conditions still support Bitcoin’s mid-term outlook?

Market pricing for a 25 bps Fed cut in September is nearly priced in, which could ease policy-driven headwinds. Analysts citing liquidity effects from U.S. Treasury issuance caution near-term pressure, but expected rate relief remains a bullish tailwind for risk assets including BTC.

Key Takeaways

• Immediate risk: $108K is the pivot; a breach raises odds of a multi-month correction.
• On-chain signal: Short-term holder cost basis (~$108.9K) often precedes prolonged weakness if lost.
• Macro context: Fed rate-cut expectations and liquidity variables still offer a mid-term bullish backdrop.

Charting the mid-term risk

Technical analysts noted RSI divergence and price action that resembles prior cycle highs. That resemblance increases the probability of a corrective phase if key supports fail.

Ali Martinez (market analyst) highlighted two validations for the bullish case: $108,700 holding as support and a positive golden cross on MVRV Momentum.

Source: X

Correlation analysis with the 2021 cycle suggests that, if the pattern persists, BTC could retrace materially before resuming the trend. A worst-case pattern could target lower bands near $70K, though that scenario requires sustained negative macro and on-chain conditions.

Source: BTC/USDT, TradingView

On-chain cost basis in focus

On-chain analytics identify ~ $108.9K as a short-term holder cost basis. Historically, trading below this band has correlated with extended selling pressure.

An on-chain analyst noted that breaking this cost basis often precedes multi-month bear phases, with statistical support bands pointing to a mid-term bottom near $93K–$95K.

Source: Glassnode

Macro tailwinds still intact?

Macro factors remain mixed. U.S. Treasury issuance may tighten dollar liquidity and pressure risk assets in the near term. Official market pricing, however, is highly confident of a 25 bps Fed cut in September.

Several institutional analysts project continued upside later in the year under easing policy—highlighting that a mid-term bullish case is plausible if liquidity conditions improve.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s immediate outlook is contingent on holding the $108K support level. On-chain short-term holder cost basis and technical indicators signal elevated risk if that level fails. At the same time, macro rate-cut expectations support a potential continuation of the bull cycle. Monitor price action, on-chain metrics and policy updates for confirmation.