Bitcoin Could Rally Toward $150K as ETF Inflows and Dovish Fed Outlook May Provide Price Floor, 21Shares’ Mena Says

• Bitcoin near-term support is underpinned by ETF inflows and easing policy expectations.

• Short-term volatility followed a $19 billion deleveraging event, while on-chain metrics show most supply remains profitable.

• Market data: BTC trading ~ $111,148; weekly drop ~9.4%; market dominance ~58.7%; public companies hold ~1.02M BTC.

Bitcoin price update: BTC near $111k after a pullback from $126k — read analysis on institutional demand, on-chain metrics, and Fed-driven macro signals. Stay informed with COINOTAG.

Published: October 17, 2025 | Updated: October 17, 2025 | By COINOTAG

How is Bitcoin’s price doing on the charts?

Bitcoin price is trading around $111,148, down about 0.9% on the day and roughly 9.43% over the past week after peaking at about $126,000. Technical indicators show short-term weakness while institutional flows and on-chain metrics suggest underlying structural support.

What is behind 21Shares’ Matt Mena’s outlook for Bitcoin?

Matt Mena, Crypto Research Strategist at 21Shares, attributes Bitcoin’s resilience to growing structural demand from ETF inflows and the prospect of a dovish Federal Reserve. He argues that with excess leverage reduced and policy easing anticipated, institutional flows could set a more constructive backdrop into year-end.

Market context and catalysts

Recent price action followed a significant market deleveraging event estimated at $19 billion, which compressed liquidity and amplified volatility on centralized venues. Sentiment improved after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled the potential for rate cuts and a pause in balance sheet runoff; futures markets and the CME FedWatch tool priced in a high probability of two cuts by year-end. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) trimmed its 2025 global growth forecast to 3.2%, adding a mixed macro backdrop to risk assets.

How have ETF inflows and institutional holdings moved the market?

U.S. crypto ETFs recorded more than $6 billion in inflows this month, and aggregate global crypto ETF assets are approaching $300 billion by year-end, according to industry tallies. Public companies now report a cumulative treasury holding of roughly 1.02 million BTC across 172 corporate treasuries, a record that highlights growing institutional adoption and long-term demand.

On-chain signals and technical indicators

On-chain analysis shows a large portion of circulating Bitcoin remains in profit, and short-term holders still play an outsized role in price dynamics. Market dominance for Bitcoin rose to about 58.7%, while the Crypto Fear & Greed Index reads in the low-30s (around 32), signaling persistent investor anxiety. Momentum indicators such as the RSI have trended lower, suggesting bears retain near-term control unless buying pressure returns.

Source: TradingView

Frequently Asked Questions

Will Bitcoin recover to $150K this year?

Forecasts vary. 21Shares’ Matt Mena points to structural ETF demand and a dovish Fed as constructive factors that could support a move toward $150K, but outcomes depend on macro developments, liquidity conditions, and risk appetite in the coming weeks.

How should investors interpret recent volatility in Bitcoin?

Recent swings largely reflect deleveraging and liquidity shifts. For investors, distinguishing short-term technical corrections from long-term structural inflows — such as ETF adoption and corporate treasuries — helps gauge whether volatility is a buying opportunity or a signal to reduce exposure.

Key Takeaways

• Price snapshot: Bitcoin is trading near $111k after a pullback from a $126k high, down ~9.4% week-over-week.
• Structural support: ETF inflows, public-company treasuries and reduced leverage provide a base for potential recovery.
• Risk factors: Macro growth revisions, Fed policy shifts, and short-term technical weakness could prolong volatility — monitor on-chain metrics and macro indicators.

Conclusion

Bitcoin price is at a crossroads: short-term indicators point to bearish momentum, yet structural demand from ETF inflows and record corporate holdings offer meaningful support. With the Federal Reserve signaling potential easing and market leverage largely flushed, the balance of risks favors monitoring institutional flows and on-chain signals for clues on the next directional leg. COINOTAG will continue to track developments and report updates.