Bitcoin Could See Further Gains Amid Rising Global Bond Yields and Japan’s Debt Concerns

• Bitcoin’s recent record rally is gaining momentum amid escalating global bond market turmoil, with Japan’s 30-year yields reaching unprecedented highs.

• The surge in bond yields is triggering a shift toward hard assets, positioning Bitcoin as a preferred macrohedge in an environment of rising fiscal and monetary uncertainty.

• According to The Kobeissi Letter, “Global government bond market liquidity is at a record low, now below 2008 levels, driving Bitcoin and Gold to new highs.”

Bitcoin’s rally intensifies as Japan’s bond crisis and global yield spikes fuel demand for hard assets, highlighting Bitcoin’s growing role as a macrohedge.

Japan’s Bond Market Crisis Spurs Bitcoin’s Defensive Appeal

The recent surge in Japan’s 30-year government bond yields to 3.2%—levels unseen since 2019—has erased nearly 45% of their value, signaling mounting stress in sovereign debt markets. Japan’s debt-to-GDP ratio now stands at an alarming 235%, with the Bank of Japan holding $198 billion in unrealized losses. This erosion of confidence in traditionally “risk-free” assets is reverberating globally, prompting investors to seek refuge in alternative stores of value.

Global Bond Market Liquidity Tightens, Elevating Hard Asset Demand

The tightening liquidity in global government bond markets, now below levels recorded during the 2008 financial crisis, is exerting upward pressure on yields worldwide. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has increased by 40 to 60 basis points this year alone, reflecting sustained deficit spending and heavy issuance. This environment is catalyzing a pronounced rotation into hard assets such as Bitcoin and Gold, which are benefiting from their scarcity and perceived safety amid fiscal uncertainty.

Institutional Interest and ETF Inflows Bolster Bitcoin’s Momentum

Institutional adoption is playing a pivotal role in Bitcoin’s price dynamics. Spot ETF inflows have surpassed $3 billion for Bitcoin and $1 billion for Ethereum, underscoring growing investor confidence. Former BlackRock executive and XBTO CIO Javier Rodriguez-Alarcón emphasizes Bitcoin’s evolving status as a “macrohedge and structurally scarce asset,” noting that its next price surge hinges on deepening institutional engagement supported by favorable legislative, fiscal, and monetary conditions.

Investor Sentiment and Market Positioning Signal Continued Support

Analysis of Bitcoin’s spot order book reveals strategic buyer positioning at 2%, 5%, and 10% below current market prices, indicating sustained dip-buying interest despite recent volatility. This shift in sentiment contrasts with the predominance of put options observed days earlier and aligns with historical patterns where similar signals preceded positive price movements. Although Bitcoin experienced a correction of over 5% from its July 14 peak of $123,300, the underlying demand dynamics suggest resilience and potential for renewed upward momentum.

Conclusion

As global bond markets face unprecedented strain, Bitcoin’s role as a defensive asset is becoming increasingly pronounced. The convergence of rising yields, shrinking bond liquidity, and expanding institutional participation is reinforcing Bitcoin’s appeal as a macrohedge. Investors should monitor these evolving dynamics closely, as they may shape the trajectory of Bitcoin and broader crypto markets in the months ahead.