Bitcoin derivatives data confirms the 2025 bull run remains intact despite BTC price dropping below $115,000, with cautious but not bearish market sentiment prevailing.
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BTC options reflect caution without signaling a full bearish reversal.
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Bitcoin ETF outflows and futures premiums indicate neutral-to-bearish sentiment but no market panic.
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Institutional demand stays robust even as leveraged bullish positions face liquidation.
Bitcoin derivatives data shows the 2025 bull run continues despite price dips below $115,000. Stay informed with COINOTAG’s expert crypto market insights.
Bitcoin Derivatives Reveal Resilience Amid Price Support Tests
Bitcoin (BTC) recently dipped to $114,013, triggering over $200 million in liquidations of leveraged bullish positions and dampening sentiment in derivatives markets. Despite this, Bitcoin derivatives data does not indicate the end of the 2025 bull run. The BTC options market signals caution but stops short of a bearish market shift, reflecting a nuanced investor stance.
Futures Premiums and ETF Flows Highlight Market Sentiment
Typically, Bitcoin monthly futures trade at a 5% to 10% premium over spot prices due to longer settlement periods. Currently, the 6% premium is the lowest in four weeks, signaling weaker demand for leveraged bullish positions. Meanwhile, spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced $115 million in net outflows recently, ending a streak of inflows. These factors point to a neutral-to-bearish sentiment but no signs of panic or capitulation.
Bitcoin 2-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas.ch
Why Bitcoin’s Correlation with Stocks Challenges the ‘Digital Gold’ Narrative
Bitcoin is trading about 7% below its July 14 all-time high of $123,182. Unlike gold, which has remained steady near $3,350, Bitcoin’s price movement has closely mirrored the S&P 500 index amid escalating global trade tensions. The 40-day correlation between BTC and the S&P 500 has surged above 70% over the past three weeks, indicating Bitcoin behaves more like a high-risk tech stock than a safe-haven asset.
BTC/USD 40-day correlation vs. S&P 500. Source: TradingView / Cointelegraph
This shift reflects changing investor perspectives and macroeconomic factors such as US import tariffs and monetary policy. For example, rising demand for 1-year US Treasury bonds, despite lower yields, signals a flight to safety amid weakening job market data.
US 1-year Treasury yield. Source: TradingView / Cointelegraph
How Does BTC Options Market Reflect Trader Confidence at Current Price Levels?
The BTC options market offers insights into trader sentiment by comparing premiums on put (sell) and call (buy) options. A put-call delta skew above 6% typically signals bearish sentiment. Currently, the 5% skew sits at the boundary between neutral and bearish, marking a shift from bullishness observed in mid-July. This suggests traders are cautiously protecting against downside risks near the $114,000 support level.
Bitcoin options 25% delta skew (put-call) at Deribit. Source: Laevitas.ch
Additionally, Strategy (MSTR) announced plans for a $4.2 billion stock offering, potentially stabilizing Bitcoin sales and derivatives markets. These developments, combined with historical trends showing August as a typically slow month for BTC, support expectations for the bull market to extend into October.
What Are the Key Indicators Suggesting the 2025 Bitcoin Bull Run Is Ongoing?
Bitcoin derivatives data including futures premiums, options skew, and ETF flows collectively indicate that while market sentiment is cautious, it is not decisively bearish. Institutional demand remains strong, and recent price declines have not triggered widespread panic or liquidation cascades. This resilience suggests the 2025 bull run is still underway.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is the 2025 Bitcoin bull run over after the recent price drop?
Bitcoin derivatives data indicates the bull run is still intact despite the price slipping below $115,000. Market sentiment is cautious but not bearish, with institutional demand remaining steady.
How does Bitcoin’s correlation with stocks affect its market behavior?
Bitcoin’s increased correlation with the S&P 500 means it moves more like a tech stock than a safe-haven asset, reflecting investor reactions to global trade tensions and economic data.
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin derivatives data: Indicates ongoing 2025 bull run despite price dips.
- Market sentiment: Cautious but not bearish, with neutral futures premiums and options skew.
- Institutional demand: Remains strong, supported by ETF flows and corporate stock offerings.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s recent price decline below $115,000 has not ended the 2025 bull run, as derivatives data and institutional activity show resilience. While market sentiment is cautious, the fundamentals and historical trends suggest continued bullish momentum. Investors should monitor futures premiums, options skew, and ETF flows for ongoing insights.
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Bitcoin derivatives data confirms the 2025 bull run continues despite price slipping below $115,000, reflecting cautious but stable market sentiment.
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Futures premiums and options skew show reduced bullish leverage but no panic, supported by steady institutional demand.
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COINOTAG analysis highlights Bitcoin’s rising correlation with stocks and its evolving market behavior amid global economic tensions.
Bitcoin derivatives data shows the 2025 bull run is ongoing despite price dips below $115,000. Get expert insights and stay ahead with COINOTAG’s crypto coverage.
Bitcoin Derivatives Signal Bull Run Stability Despite Price Volatility
Bitcoin’s recent drop to $114,013 led to significant liquidations but did not overturn the 2025 bull run. Derivatives data reveals cautious investor behavior, with futures premiums at a four-week low and options skew indicating neutral to bearish sentiment. These metrics suggest traders are hedging risks without abandoning bullish positions.
ETF Flows and Institutional Moves Impact Market Dynamics
Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $115 million in net outflows, ending a series of inflows, reflecting short-term caution. However, Strategy (MSTR)’s $4.2 billion stock offering announcement may bolster market stability by reducing forced Bitcoin sales. This institutional activity underscores ongoing confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term potential.
Bitcoin 2-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas.ch
How Does Bitcoin’s Market Correlation Affect Its Role as Digital Gold?
Bitcoin’s price movement increasingly aligns with the S&P 500, with a 40-day correlation exceeding 70%. This challenges its “digital gold” narrative, positioning it more as a high-risk tech asset influenced by macroeconomic factors like US tariffs and monetary policy. Investors are adjusting strategies accordingly.
BTC/USD 40-day correlation vs. S&P 500. Source: TradingView / Cointelegraph
What Does the BTC Options Market Reveal About Trader Sentiment?
The BTC options 25% delta skew currently sits at 5%, indicating a borderline neutral to bearish stance. This contrasts with mid-July’s bullish skew and reflects traders’ increased demand for downside protection near the $114,000 support level. Such data helps gauge market confidence and potential price movements.
Bitcoin options 25% delta skew (put-call) at Deribit. Source: Laevitas.ch
Conclusion
Despite recent volatility, Bitcoin’s derivatives markets and institutional signals confirm the 2025 bull run remains intact. Cautious sentiment reflects prudent risk management rather than market capitulation. Investors should continue monitoring key metrics like futures premiums, options skew, and ETF flows to navigate this evolving landscape.
