Bitcoin Faces Binance Selling Pressure; Whale Accumulation Suggests Bull Cycle May Still Continue

By COINOTAG | Published: 16 October 2025 | Updated: 16 October 2025

• Binance-led selling: negative funding and low taker buy ratios point to concentrated sell pressure.

• On-chain accumulation: whale and megawhale balances suggest strong long-term conviction.

• Short-term outlook: futures and derivatives sentiment favor sellers, but reserve risk and STH metrics indicate an accumulation window.

Bitcoin price decline: Binance-driven selling pushed BTC lower, while whales continue accumulating—read COINOTAG’s data-led analysis and next-level scenarios for traders and investors.

What is causing Bitcoin’s recent price decline?

Bitcoin price decline over the past week is chiefly linked to concentrated selling on Binance, where funding turned negative and taker buy-sell ratios fell to multi-month lows. On-chain indicators from CryptoQuant and Checkonchain show derivatives sellers dominating short-term order flow while long-term holders continue to accumulate.

How is Binance influencing the sell-off?

Market-data firm CryptoQuant identifies three exchange-level indicators that together point to Binance as the primary driver of the pullback:

• Coinbase Premium remained positive even as BTC fell, implying U.S. buying interest failed to offset selling pressure elsewhere.

• Binance funding rates turned negative for four consecutive days while other exchanges stayed positive, indicating aggressive short positioning on Binance.

• Taker Buy-Sell Ratio on Binance dropped to its lowest level in over a year, reflecting dominant sell-side activity and position closures in derivatives markets.

These exchange-level divergences imply local exchange mechanics—order-book imbalances and concentrated liquidations—are amplifying price moves. Source: CryptoQuant

With Coinbase Premium positive while price slides, selling from non-U.S. venues has materially outweighed U.S. demand in the short term.

Negative funding on Binance reflects traders paying shorts to hold positions—an explicit sign of downside conviction among derivatives traders. Source: CryptoQuant

Futures Taker CVD has been negative for the week, further confirming buyer exhaustion in derivatives. Source: CryptoQuant

Is the broader bull cycle over?

Short answer: no. Data from on-chain analytics provider Checkonchain show continued accumulation by whales and megawhales, and reserve-risk metrics remain consistent with long-term holder conviction. These indicators suggest current weakness is a short-term correction rather than a regime change.

Checkonchain reports that Whale and Exchange Balance Change hit monthly lows, with large-wallet outflows consistent with accumulation behavior rather than panic selling. Source: Checkonchain

Reserve Risk has declined since early October and currently sits at approximately 0.0094, an indication that long-term holders are maintaining positions and viewing current prices as an accumulation opportunity. Source: Checkonchain

Short-term holders (STHs) show minimal sell-side risk—STH Sell Side Risk sits near 0.001%, which means many short-term wallets are not incentivized to liquidate at current prices.

Frequently Asked Questions

Will Bitcoin drop below $108,000 during this correction?

Price action depends on whether Binance selling persists. If sell pressure remains concentrated on Binance, technical levels suggest a possible test of $108,469; however, on-chain accumulation by whales makes a deeper sustained breakdown less likely in the medium term.

How long will the current weak phase last?

Short-term weakness is being driven by exchange-level selling and derivatives positioning; historically, similar corrections have lasted days to a few weeks before rebounding if on-chain holder conviction remains strong.

Key Takeaways

• Exchange-driven correction: Binance-specific flows—negative funding and low taker buy ratios—explain much of the recent decline.
• On-chain resilience: Whale accumulation, falling reserve risk, and low STH sell-side risk indicate long-term holders remain bullish.
• Actionable levels: Continued Binance dominance risks a move to ~$108.5k; a successful whale-led reversal would aim for $112.7k then $115k.

Conclusion

Binance-driven selling explains the immediate Bitcoin price decline, while on-chain metrics from Checkonchain and CryptoQuant indicate persistent bullish conviction among large holders. Traders should monitor Binance funding, taker ratios and whale balance changes for short-term signals, while long-term investors may view the dip as an accumulation window. COINOTAG will continue to monitor data and update this report as new information becomes available.