- Upcoming Bitcoin halving event could trigger a significant shift in the profitability of US-based Bitcoin miners, warns crypto strategist Jaran Mellerud.
- If Bitcoin’s price doesn’t surge post-halving, high-cost miners may be forced to shut down or relocate to regions with lower electricity costs.
- “So many US-based miners hosted at $0.07 and above will become unprofitable following the halving,” says Mellerud, highlighting the urgency for strategic adjustments.
The upcoming Bitcoin halving poses a significant risk to the profitability of high-cost US-based miners, potentially catalyzing a drastic shift in the global distribution of mining operations.
Imminent Threat to High-Cost Miners Post-Halving
As the Bitcoin community anticipates the April 24th halving event, which will reduce miner payouts from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, concerns grow over the impact on miners’ profitability. Crypto strategist Jaran Mellerud predicts a critical period in the months following the halving, where miners with electricity costs above $0.07 per kWh may face severe financial distress. This situation could lead to a “mining stock bloodbath,” particularly affecting US-based public miners who may need to consider relocating to maintain operations.
Potential Shift in Bitcoin’s Hash Rate
The threat of decreased profitability has sparked discussions about a possible migration of Bitcoin’s hash rate from the United States to countries with lower electricity costs, such as those in Africa and Latin America. Mellerud specifically identifies Ethiopia, Nigeria, Kenya, Argentina, and Paraguay as potential beneficiaries of this shift, offering “halving-proof” hosting rates that could attract miners looking to remain viable in the post-halving landscape.
Analysts Offer Diverging Views on the Impact
While Mellerud’s warning paints a grim picture for high-cost miners, other analysts, such as Mitchell Askew from Blockware Solutions, offer a more optimistic outlook. Askew argues that most US public miners operate with energy costs low enough to sustain profitability even after the halving. He suggests that the overall impact on the Bitcoin hash rate would be minimal, and practical considerations may deter miners from relocating overseas despite the challenges posed by the halving.
Conclusion
The upcoming Bitcoin halving event underscores the volatile nature of cryptocurrency mining and its dependence on market conditions. As miners brace for reduced payouts, the industry may witness significant changes, including potential relocations and a reshuffling of global hash rate distributions. Whether these predictions will materialize depends on Bitcoin’s price movements post-halving and miners’ adaptability to the evolving landscape.
