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Bitcoin’s long-term holders now control over 80% of the total supply, a rare market condition that has historically preceded significant price surges.
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This concentration of Bitcoin in “diamond hands” mirrors previous phases where supply constraints triggered rapid upward momentum, suggesting a potential breakout ahead.
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According to CrediBULL Crypto, these supply dynamics have led to historic rallies, with projections indicating Bitcoin could surpass $150,000 in the next bullish cycle.
Bitcoin’s supply held by long-term investors exceeds 80%, signaling a potential breakout above $150,000 as historical patterns and treasury accumulations tighten market supply.
Long-Term Bitcoin Holders Signal Strong Market Fundamentals
The current market landscape shows that over 80% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply is held by long-term investors, a metric that has only been reached twice before in Bitcoin’s history. These holders, often referred to as “diamond hands,” demonstrate a strong conviction to retain their assets despite short-term volatility. This behavior effectively reduces the liquid supply available for trading, creating a scarcity environment that historically precedes substantial price rallies. Such supply-side constraints are critical indicators for investors seeking to understand potential market movements.
Historical Supply Concentration and Price Movements
Data from CrediBULL Crypto highlights that the last two periods when Bitcoin’s supply in long-term holders’ possession exceeded 80% were followed by significant price increases. The first occurrence saw Bitcoin rise from $43,000 to $73,000, a $30,000 gain. The second phase began around $58,000 and was followed by a surge projected to exceed $105,000. These historical precedents suggest that when a majority of Bitcoin is held off-market, fresh demand can trigger sharp upward price impulses. This pattern underscores the importance of supply dynamics in forecasting Bitcoin’s price trajectory.
Supply Tightening Amplified by Corporate Treasury Accumulation
Beyond individual long-term holders, institutional and corporate treasury accumulation is further tightening Bitcoin’s available supply. Companies holding Bitcoin as part of their treasury strategy reduce the circulating supply accessible to traders and investors, intensifying scarcity. This dual-layered supply constraint—both from retail long-term holders and corporate entities—creates a market environment ripe for a supply squeeze. In such scenarios, even modest increases in demand can lead to outsized price movements, reinforcing the bullish outlook for Bitcoin.
Projected Price Targets Based on Supply and Demand Dynamics
CrediBULL Crypto’s analysis projects that the next bullish impulse could propel Bitcoin’s price beyond $150,000. This forecast is grounded in historical supply-demand relationships rather than speculative hype. The analyst emphasizes that the current market structure, characterized by high supply concentration and increasing treasury holdings, aligns with conditions that previously led to substantial price rallies. Investors should consider these supply metrics as key indicators when evaluating Bitcoin’s potential price trajectory in the near to medium term.
Conclusion
The consolidation of over 80% of Bitcoin’s supply in long-term holders, coupled with growing corporate treasury accumulation, signals a tightening market that historically precedes major price advances. While past performance does not guarantee future results, the current supply dynamics provide a strong foundation for a potential breakout above $150,000. Market participants are advised to monitor these supply trends closely, as they offer valuable insights into Bitcoin’s evolving market structure and future price potential.
