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Bitcoin’s long-term holders now control 80% of the circulating supply, signaling a potential surge in price as historical trends suggest strong rallies follow this milestone.
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Market data reveals that institutional investors are steadily accumulating Bitcoin, contributing to a tightening supply that could fuel significant upward momentum.
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According to COINOTAG, “The concentration of Bitcoin in long-term wallets indicates a robust conviction among investors, setting the stage for a possible breakout beyond $110,000 resistance.”
Bitcoin’s 80% long-term holder supply signals a looming price rally, with traders eyeing a breakout above $110,000 and potential gains toward $130,000.
Long-Term Bitcoin Holders Reach Historic 80% Supply Threshold
Bitcoin’s long-term holders (LTHs), defined as entities holding BTC for over 155 days, have now amassed 80% of the total circulating supply—a level rarely seen in the cryptocurrency’s history. This milestone is significant because it reflects a strong conviction among investors who are less likely to sell, thereby reducing market liquidity and creating a supply shock. Historically, when LTH supply surpasses this threshold, Bitcoin has experienced substantial price rallies, with gains of 72% and 84% recorded during previous occurrences in early and late 2024.
Crypto analyst CrediBULL Crypto emphasizes that “over 80% of all the Bitcoin that will ever exist is currently being HODL’d,” highlighting the rarity and importance of this supply dynamic. The growing dominance of long-term holders suggests a market environment where any new demand could trigger aggressive price appreciation, as fewer coins are available for trading.
Institutional Accumulation Amplifies Supply Constraints
Institutional investors and Bitcoin treasury companies have played a pivotal role in driving the LTH supply to all-time highs. With approximately 14.7 million BTC held by long-term holders—valued at around $1.6 trillion as of early June 2025—the market is witnessing a pronounced shift towards illiquidity. This trend is corroborated by data from Glassnode and reinforced by market sentiment indicating reduced sell pressure. As these entities continue to accumulate Bitcoin steadily, the resulting supply squeeze could intensify price volatility and set the stage for a significant breakout.
Traders Position for a Potential Breakout Above $110,000
Market participants are increasingly positioning themselves for a bullish scenario, as evidenced by a surge in September $130,000 call options on Deribit. These options contracts reflect expectations that Bitcoin will break through the current resistance zone between $100,000 and $110,000, potentially triggering a new wave of volatility and price appreciation.
Singapore-based QCP Capital notes that “vols remain pinned near historical lows, but a decisive breach of the $110,000 resistance could spark a renewed volatility bid.” The firm highlights that large traders are actively adding exposure to high-strike call options, signaling confidence in Bitcoin’s potential to reach $130,000 or beyond during Q3 2025.
Liquidity Clusters and Resistance Levels to Watch
Data from CoinGlass reveals significant liquidity clusters just above the $110,000 mark, with heavy ask orders extending up to $130,000. These levels represent critical resistance zones where price action could either stall or accelerate depending on market momentum. The concentration of liquidation points near these thresholds underscores the importance of monitoring order book dynamics and trader positioning to anticipate potential breakout scenarios.
Conclusion
The accumulation of Bitcoin by long-term holders reaching 80% of circulating supply, combined with growing institutional interest and strategic trader positioning, suggests a market primed for a significant price rally. While the $110,000 resistance remains a key hurdle, breaking above it could unleash heightened volatility and propel Bitcoin toward targets around $130,000. Investors should remain attentive to supply dynamics and liquidity clusters as these factors will likely influence the trajectory of Bitcoin’s next major move.
