Bitcoin May Hold Above $100K on US-China Trade Progress and Fed Rate Cut

• U.S.-China trade progress: Potential delay in rare-earth export controls and U.S. soybean purchases could reduce tariffs, boosting Bitcoin’s price.

• Federal Reserve rate cut: An expected 25-basis-point reduction this week may enhance investor sentiment toward risk assets like Bitcoin.

• ETF inflows: Shifts from gold ETFs, with over $2 billion withdrawn last week, could signal stronger Bitcoin demand if reversed into BTC funds.

Discover why Bitcoin could stay above $100,000 amid easing trade wars and rate cuts. Expert insights from Standard Chartered predict sustained gains—explore the factors driving BTC’s bullish outlook today.

Will Bitcoin Stay Above $100,000 in the Current Market?

Bitcoin is poised to remain above $100,000 if ongoing positive developments in global trade and monetary policy persist, as outlined by Geoffrey Kendrick, global head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered Bank. In his recent analysis, Kendrick highlights that resolutions in the U.S.-China trade dispute, combined with anticipated Federal Reserve actions, could bolster investor confidence and prevent significant price drops. This outlook is supported by Bitcoin’s recent recovery to $115,000 following intraday lows around $113,000.

How Are U.S.-China Trade Talks Influencing Bitcoin’s Price?

The potential easing of U.S.-China trade tensions is a key driver behind Bitcoin’s upward momentum. According to U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, China may postpone its rare-earth export restrictions for one year and commit to substantial purchases of U.S. soybeans over multiple years. In exchange, the U.S. could withdraw its proposed 100% tariffs on certain goods. These negotiations are slated for finalization during the upcoming summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea.

Kendrick emphasizes that progress in these talks would mark a turning point, reducing market uncertainties that previously triggered sell-offs. Data from market trackers shows Bitcoin’s price correlating positively with such geopolitical stability, with historical instances of trade resolutions leading to 10-15% gains in BTC within weeks. As Kendrick notes, “Progress in trade discussions starts the positive cycle for Bitcoin’s valuation.”

Furthermore, the bitcoin-to-gold ratio—a metric comparing Bitcoin’s market capitalization to gold’s—has rebounded to pre-tariff panic levels seen before October 10. Kendrick advises monitoring this ratio for a breakthrough above 30, which would indicate fading fears and stronger adoption of Bitcoin as a store of value.

Easing Trade Tensions Spark Market Optimism

The cryptocurrency market has shown immediate optimism in response to reports of advancing U.S.-China trade negotiations. Bitcoin surged 1.63% to $115,000 from an intraday low of $113,000, reflecting broader sentiment shifts across digital assets. This reaction underscores Bitcoin’s sensitivity to macroeconomic factors, particularly those involving major global economies.

Market analysts, including Kendrick, point to the restoration of the bitcoin-to-gold ratio as a critical indicator. Prior to recent tariff-related headlines, this ratio hovered at higher levels, signaling robust investor preference for Bitcoin over traditional safe-havens like gold during uncertain times. “I will watch for this ratio to break back above 30 to signal an end to such fear,” Kendrick stated in his research note.

Additionally, the overall crypto market cap has stabilized, with altcoins following Bitcoin’s lead in recovering from recent dips. This interconnectedness highlights Bitcoin’s role as the sector’s bellwether, where positive news often cascades to other assets.

ETF Inflows Could Confirm Bitcoin’s Strength

Another pillar of Bitcoin’s potential long-term stability above $100,000 lies in capital flows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Kendrick observes that last week alone, U.S. gold ETFs experienced outflows exceeding $2 billion between Wednesday and Friday, indicating a possible rotation toward higher-yield alternatives like Bitcoin.

If even a portion of these funds—say, half—redirects into Bitcoin ETFs this week, it would demonstrate heightened confidence in BTC’s fundamentals. Kendrick notes that Bitcoin ETF inflows have lagged behind gold’s historically, creating room for “catch-up” activity. “This would show stronger belief in Bitcoin,” he explained, adding that such trends could accelerate if Bitcoin breaks new all-time highs.

Achieving a new peak would also challenge outdated narratives tying Bitcoin’s performance solely to halving events. Kendrick asserts, “To clarify, I think the halving cycle is dead (ETF flows matter more), but it will take confirmation to convince everyone of this.” Supporting data from ETF trackers reveals that institutional inflows have already surpassed $50 billion year-to-date, with projections for further growth amid favorable policies.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for Wednesday is expected to deliver another 25-basis-point rate cut, as confirmed by Federal Reserve announcements. Lower interest rates typically favor risk-on assets, potentially amplifying Bitcoin’s appeal. “If this week goes well, bitcoin may NEVER go below $100,000 again,” Kendrick concluded in his analysis.

Also Read: Strategy Adds 390 BTC, Holding Now 640,808

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Frequently Asked Questions

What factors could prevent Bitcoin from dropping below $100,000?

U.S.-China trade resolutions, Federal Reserve rate cuts, and increased ETF inflows are primary factors. According to Standard Chartered Bank’s Geoffrey Kendrick, these elements could sustain investor confidence, with Bitcoin already trading at $115,000 after recent gains.

How might the upcoming FOMC meeting impact Bitcoin’s price?

The FOMC’s anticipated 25-basis-point rate cut on Wednesday could lower borrowing costs, encouraging investment in assets like Bitcoin. This natural progression of easier monetary policy often boosts risk appetite, potentially driving BTC higher in the short term.

Key Takeaways

• Trade Tension Relief: Easing U.S.-China disputes, including delayed export controls and tariff reductions, directly supports Bitcoin’s price stability above $100,000.
• ETF Flow Dynamics: Outflows from gold ETFs totaling over $2 billion signal potential inflows to Bitcoin funds, reinforcing BTC’s market strength.
• Monetary Policy Boost: The Federal Reserve’s rate cut could catalyze further gains, urging investors to monitor Bitcoin’s bitcoin-to-gold ratio for bullish confirmation.

Conclusion

In summary, Bitcoin’s trajectory above $100,000 hinges on resolving U.S.-China trade talks and supportive Federal Reserve policies, as detailed by Standard Chartered Bank’s expert Geoffrey Kendrick. With ETF inflows poised to confirm this strength and market ratios rebounding, the outlook remains positive for sustained Bitcoin price levels. Investors should stay attuned to upcoming developments for opportunities in this evolving landscape, positioning themselves for long-term growth in digital assets.