Bitcoin May See Recovery After Rebound to $111K as Risk-Off Signal Stabilizes and Retail, Sharks Accumulate

• Reduced short-term selling: STH spending fell across 1d–1w, 1w–1m and 1m–3m cohorts.

• Retail and sharks increased balance change, driving three consecutive days of positive accumulation signals.

• On-chain sources report only ~9% of Bitcoin supply in loss versus ~25% at cycle bottoms.

Bitcoin price recovery showing renewed accumulation after a $111k rebound — monitor netflows and STH activity for next moves. Read the latest on-chain signals and implications.

What is driving Bitcoin price recovery?

Bitcoin price recovery is being driven by reduced short-term holder (STH) selling and renewed accumulation from retail and large wallets. On-chain data shows a notable drop in STH volume spent and consecutive exchange outflows, which together reduce immediate downside pressure and support price stabilization.

How have short-term holders affected recent BTC moves?

Short-term holder spending across the 1 day–1 week, 1 week–1 month and 1 month–3 month cohorts has declined meaningfully. The 1–3 month cohort fell from ~21k BTC to ~11k BTC, 1w–1m slid from ~26k BTC to ~23k BTC, and 1d–1w dropped from ~58k BTC to ~44k BTC. These declines signal lower panic selling by recent buyers.

According to on-chain analytics providers Glassnode and Checkonchain (sources mentioned as plain text), the Risk-Off Signal has retraced toward lower-risk levels, with only ~9% of supply in unrealized loss compared to ~25% at historical cycle bottoms.

Source: Glassnode (plain text)

Why has selling activity shrunk?

Selling activity contracted as short-term cohorts reduced volume spent. Reduced STH selling implies fewer traders are exiting positions at lower prices. Checkonchain data shows the most recent cohort declines, indicating less immediate supply pressure on the market.

Source: Checkonchain (plain text)

How are retail and large-wallets influencing price momentum?

Retail cohorts (Shrimp <1 BTC, Crabs 1–10 BTC) and larger wallets (Sharks 100–1k BTC) returned to net accumulation. Checkonchain shows Sharks rebounded from a ~7k BTC dip to +31.7k BTC, Shrimp rose ~2.2k BTC and Crabs ~1k BTC. This broad-based accumulation supports a bullish base if sustained.

Source: Checkonchain (plain text)

Source: Checkonchain (plain text)

Exchange netflow also shifted. CryptoQuant (plain text) shows netflow moved from -18k BTC the prior day to about -129 BTC at press time, reflecting sustained outflows and reduced exchange supply pressure.

Source: CryptoQuant (plain text)

Is BTC set for recovery?

On-chain signals indicate improved balance between supply and demand: lower STH spend, rising accumulation from retail and sharks, and sustained exchange outflows. If accumulation continues and BTC holds above $110k, a move toward $115k is plausible. Should accumulation weaken and selling return, downside toward $108k is possible.

Frequently Asked Questions

How reliable is the Risk-Off Signal for predicting bottoms?

The Risk-Off Signal is a useful risk metric: lower readings suggest reduced systemic selling pressure. It’s not definitive; combine it with STH activity, exchange netflow and wallet balance change for a multi-factor view (about 40–50 words).

What on-chain metrics should traders monitor now?

Monitor STH volume spent, exchange netflow, balance change across wallet cohorts and unrealized loss percentages. These metrics together indicate selling intensity, accumulation and potential support levels in natural language for voice queries.

Key Takeaways

• Reduced STH selling: Short-term cohorts cut spending, lowering near-term supply pressure.
• Renewed accumulation: Retail and sharks increased balances, signaling confidence.
• Watch netflows: Continued exchange outflows and holding above $110k are necessary for sustained recovery.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s rebound to roughly $111k was accompanied by falling short-term selling and renewed accumulation across retail and large wallets, improving the probability of a sustained recovery. Continue monitoring STH activity, exchange netflow and wallet balance changes as indicators. COINOTAG will track updates and on-chain signals as they evolve.