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Bitcoin’s recent price surge defies historical patterns, with a critical indicator revealing unusually low selling pressure despite nearing record highs.
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Unlike previous bull runs in 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin’s exchange inflows remain subdued, signaling strong holder confidence amid market consolidation.
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According to CryptoQuant’s Arab Chain, the Bitcoin Flow Pulse indicator suggests investors are holding steady, but caution is advised for potential shifts in market dynamics.
Bitcoin’s 2025 rally breaks past cycle trends with low selling pressure, supported by key indicators signaling sustained bullish momentum and potential market consolidation.
Bitcoin’s 2025 Rally Breaks Historical Selling Patterns
Bitcoin’s price action in 2025 is exhibiting a notable divergence from previous bull market peaks. Historically, surges to all-time highs were accompanied by increased exchange inflows as holders moved assets to sell, triggering sharp corrections. However, the current cycle stands apart, with CryptoQuant’s Flow Pulse indicator showing persistently low selling pressure even after Bitcoin reached $122,838 on July 14.
This anomaly suggests that large holders, often referred to as “whales,” are maintaining their positions rather than capitalizing on gains. Such behavior underscores a high level of market confidence and a potential shift in investor psychology. The subdued exchange activity contrasts sharply with the 2017 and 2021 peaks, where rising inflows foreshadowed significant pullbacks.
Investor Sentiment and Market Stability Amid Consolidation
While short-term caution remains prudent, the broader trend indicates consolidation rather than imminent decline. The Bitcoin Bull and Bear Market Cycle indicator corroborates this by identifying the current phase as an overheated bullish market, typically preceding short-term volatility but not necessarily a sustained downturn.
Long-term indicators, including the 30- and 365-day moving averages, continue to project a bullish trajectory. CryptoQuant contributor Arab Chain advises new entrants to exercise patience, recommending waiting for clearer pullbacks before increasing exposure. Bitcoin’s current price near $117,830 reflects a modest 4% retracement from its recent peak, reinforcing the narrative of a healthy market correction rather than a reversal.
Technical Analysis Highlights Bitcoin’s Support and Resistance Levels
Technical indicators provide further insight into Bitcoin’s price dynamics. Bollinger Bands position Bitcoin in the upper trading range, with the upper band at $124,041 and the middle band near $115,955, which acts as a robust support zone. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers just below 60, indicating neutral momentum without overbought conditions.
However, shorter-term signals such as the 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and Simple Moving Average (SMA) suggest a cautious outlook, currently signaling a sell. This divergence between short- and long-term indicators points to potential near-term price fluctuations while maintaining an overall bullish framework.
The alignment of the 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages in a positive stacking pattern further supports sustained upward momentum. Meanwhile, the MACD and Momentum indicators reflect short-term bearishness, implying possible price dips without a fundamental trend reversal.
Key Price Levels to Watch for Market Direction
Critical price thresholds will likely dictate Bitcoin’s next moves. A successful reclaim of $120,000 and a breakthrough above the upper Bollinger Band at $124,041 could set the stage for retesting or surpassing the all-time high of $122,838. Conversely, a drop below the $115,000 support level may expose Bitcoin to deeper corrections, potentially testing support near $111,000.
Such a decline, especially if accompanied by increased exchange inflows, could signal a more pronounced market correction. Traders and investors should monitor the Flow Pulse indicator closely for any sudden upticks in selling activity, which historically precede significant price adjustments.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s 2025 price rally challenges traditional market cycle behaviors, with low selling pressure and strong holder conviction underpinning the current uptrend. While technical indicators suggest potential short-term volatility, the long-term outlook remains bullish, supported by key moving averages and market sentiment. Investors are advised to stay vigilant for shifts in exchange flows and price action around critical support and resistance levels to navigate this evolving market landscape effectively.
