Bitcoin’s disbelief phase in 2025 indicates trader caution after recent corrections, but on-chain data and historical patterns suggest an impending recovery rally toward $113,000-$126,000 as short positions fuel a potential squeeze.
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Bitcoin’s disbelief phase shows traders staying cautious, but their skepticism could ignite the next big recovery rally soon.
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Negative funding rates and short dominance reveal fear in the market, yet these factors could trigger a strong short squeeze.
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On-chain data and past cycles suggest Bitcoin may rebound toward $113K to $126K if current support levels hold firm, according to analysts at CryptoQuant and Glassnode.
Discover Bitcoin’s disbelief phase: Traders remain skeptical amid negative funding rates, but recovery signals point to a rally to $113K+. Explore on-chain insights for smart investing—stay informed with COINOTAG today.
What Is Bitcoin’s Disbelief Phase and How Does It Signal Recovery?
Bitcoin’s disbelief phase represents a pivotal market stage where, following a price correction, skepticism among investors persists even as underlying trends shift toward recovery. This phase, as described by CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, typically marks the end of a downturn and the onset of a new uptrend, with traders remaining cautious due to recent volatility like the October 10 liquidation event. Historical data shows this doubt often precedes strong rallies, potentially driving Bitcoin from current levels toward $113,000 or higher if support holds.
How Do Derivatives Data Indicate Bitcoin’s Recovery Potential?
Derivatives markets provide clear signals of Bitcoin’s potential rebound during the disbelief phase. Funding rates on major platforms like Binance have remained negative for six of the last seven days, hovering around -0.004%, indicating persistent short position dominance as traders bet against upward movement. This imbalance, per CryptoQuant analysis, sets the stage for a short squeeze: as Bitcoin’s price stabilizes and begins to rise, these shorts could face liquidations, amplifying buying pressure and propelling prices higher.
Darkfost highlights past precedents, noting that in April 2025, Bitcoin climbed from $85,000 to $123,000 after a similar disbelief period, while in September 2024, it recovered from $54,000 to over $100,000. These rapid shifts underscore how trader incredulity can quickly reverse into momentum. Current liquidation clusters, if triggered, align with projections of Bitcoin reaching $113,000 to $126,000, provided the uptrend strengthens without major disruptions.
Frequently Asked Questions
What Causes Bitcoin’s Disbelief Phase After Major Liquidations?
Bitcoin’s disbelief phase often follows significant events like the October 10 liquidation cascade, which wiped out billions in positions and heightened trader fear. According to CryptoQuant, this leads to prolonged negative sentiment, with investors hesitant to buy despite stabilizing prices. Historically, such phases last 7-14 days before reversal, offering entry points for accumulation as short-term holders offload at losses.
Can On-Chain Metrics Predict Bitcoin’s Next Rally in 2025?
Yes, on-chain metrics like STH-SOPR from CryptoQuant and cost-basis bands from Glassnode can reliably signal Bitcoin’s rallies. The Spent Output Profit Ratio for short-term holders is dipping into the green zone, indicating loss realization and smart money accumulation. Glassnode reports Bitcoin reclaiming the 0.85 cost-basis support, a key level where holding firm rebuilds momentum—ideal for voice queries on recovery timelines.
Key Takeaways
- Disbelief as a Catalyst: Trader skepticism in Bitcoin’s current phase, evidenced by negative funding rates, historically precedes explosive recoveries, as seen in April 2025’s surge.
- On-Chain Support: Glassnode’s data shows Bitcoin holding the 0.85 cost-basis band, a critical support that could prevent retests of lower prices and foster upward momentum.
- Strategic Accumulation: CryptoQuant’s STH-SOPR signals an ideal buying window during loss realization—investors should monitor liquidations for entry into the next rally phase.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s disbelief phase in 2025 encapsulates a moment of market hesitation amid negative derivatives data and cautious trader behavior, yet on-chain signals from sources like CryptoQuant and Glassnode point to a robust recovery potential targeting $113,000 to $126,000. As short squeezes and historical patterns align, this stage offers strategic opportunities for informed investors. Stay vigilant with COINOTAG for updates, as Bitcoin’s trajectory could accelerate into year-end gains, reinforcing its resilience in the evolving crypto landscape.
Published by COINOTAG on October 15, 2025. Last updated: October 15, 2025.
