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Bitcoin’s supply dynamics are shifting significantly as ancient coins outpace new issuance, intensifying scarcity and reshaping market expectations.
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The majority of BTC holders remain profitable, underscoring sustained bullish sentiment despite recent market volatility.
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According to IntoTheBlock, 88.88% of Bitcoin holders are currently in profit, highlighting strong investor confidence amid evolving supply trends.
Bitcoin’s growing ancient supply surpasses new issuance, boosting scarcity and bullish sentiment as the crypto market navigates 2024 halving impacts and geopolitical volatility.
Post-2024 Halving: Bitcoin’s Ancient Supply Surpasses New Issuance
The 2024 Bitcoin halving has catalyzed a pivotal transformation within the ecosystem, as revealed by Fidelity Digital Assets. For the first time, the volume of ancient Bitcoin supply—coins dormant for over a decade—is increasing faster than new BTC issuance. Currently, approximately 566 BTC enter this long-term category daily, exceeding the 450 BTC generated through mining.
This shift means that over 17% of all issued Bitcoin now resides in wallets untouched for at least ten years, signaling a growing cohort of long-term holders who contribute to Bitcoin’s inherent scarcity. While scarcity alone does not dictate price movements, this evolving supply landscape enhances Bitcoin’s appeal as a deflationary asset.
Implications of Growing Ancient Supply on Market Liquidity and Price Stability
The rise in ancient supply reduces the effective circulating Bitcoin available for trading, potentially tightening liquidity. This scarcity effect may support price stability or appreciation over time, especially as institutional investors continue to accumulate BTC. However, recent geopolitical tensions, such as the Israel-Iran conflict, have introduced episodic volatility, reminding investors of the market’s sensitivity to external shocks.
Bitcoin’s Path to a $1 Million Valuation: Market Capitalization and Supply Constraints
Achieving a $1 million price per Bitcoin would require the market capitalization to soar to approximately $21 trillion, a tenfold increase from its current $2.10 trillion valuation. This ambitious target hinges on Bitcoin’s fixed supply and the accelerating rate at which coins become part of the ancient supply category.
Projections suggest that by 2026, ancient supply could constitute nearly 30% of total Bitcoin, equating to around 6.3 million BTC held long-term. This trend, fueled by institutional accumulation and investor confidence, underscores Bitcoin’s potential as a scarce digital asset with significant upside.
Nevertheless, the report notes increased movement among long-term holders post-2024 U.S. election, with day-to-day declines in ancient supply occurring 10% of the time—quadruple the historical average. Similarly, coins held for five years or more have seen declines 39% of the time, contributing to the observed price stagnation in early 2025.
Future Outlook: Navigating Volatility Amid Strong Fundamentals
Despite short-term fluctuations, Bitcoin’s fundamentals remain robust. IntoTheBlock data indicates that nearly 89% of holders are in profit, suggesting enduring bullish sentiment. Exchange inflows from both retail and whale investors have slowed, reflecting a preference for holding rather than selling.
Source: IntoTheBlock
With fewer coins circulating and more being held indefinitely or lost, Bitcoin’s disinflationary nature is becoming more pronounced. This unique characteristic, unmatched by traditional assets, may enhance Bitcoin’s long-term investment appeal as demand grows in tandem with ancient supply.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s evolving supply dynamics, marked by the increasing dominance of ancient supply over new issuance, underscore a fundamental shift toward greater scarcity. While geopolitical events and election cycles introduce volatility, the strong profitability among holders and reduced exchange inflows suggest sustained confidence. Investors should monitor these supply trends closely, as they provide critical insights into Bitcoin’s potential trajectory in the coming years.
