-
Bitcoin’s rising US exchange transfer volumes and multiple technical indicators forecast a powerful rally in Q3 and Q4 of 2025.
-
US-based crypto trading platforms regaining influence over Bitcoin’s (BTC) token transfer volumes could possibly kick-start a rally in the second half of 2025.
-
Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr pointed out that the “US vs. off-shore ratio,” which measures token transfer volumes between US-regulated and offshore exchanges, indicated a drop in dominance from US exchanges after BTC reached an all-time high in January.
Analyzing Bitcoin’s resurgence through US exchanges hints at a potential bull market as technical indicators align for growth through late 2025.
Bitcoin shows promising trends as US exchange volumes rise
The recent uptick in Bitcoin’s transfer volumes on US exchanges marks a significant shift in market dynamics. Historically, an increase in US-based trading activities has been a reliable precursor to price rallies. As illustrated in the accompanying chart, a trend reversal appears to be underway, suggesting renewed interest from US investors.
A key factor contributing to this trend is the 90-day simple moving average (SMA) crossing above the 365-day SMA. This crossover has been a strong bullish signal in past market cycles. For instance, when this crossover occurred at approximately $60,000, Bitcoin experienced a robust price surge shortly afterward, reinforcing the idea that current conditions could herald a significant upcoming rally.
Onchain analysis provides insight into Bitcoin’s price potential
Analysts are reviewing onchain metrics to gauge Bitcoin’s long-term potential. Verified onchain analyst Boris Vest highlighted that Bitcoin’s exchange reserves have plummeted to levels not seen since 2018, with only 2.43 million BTC currently held on exchanges compared to 3.4 million in 2021. This decrease suggests a strong inclination toward long-term holding among investors, leading to reduced supply in the market.
Additionally, the Bitcoin stablecoin supply ratio (SSR) at 14.3 signifies that considerable purchasing power remains in the market, as this ratio is still below the highs established in 2021. Boris noted:
“Since it hasn’t yet reached 2021 levels, we can say that Bitcoin still appears to be undervalued. This suggests the bull market and buying pressure are likely to continue.”
Key technical indicators suggest bullish momentum ahead
Markets analyst Dom provided insights into Bitcoin’s recent performance, indicating that the cryptocurrency has successfully broken out of a multi-month downtrend. He observes that Bitcoin has flipped the monthly Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP) into support for the first time since January. The VWAP calculation integrates trading volume to provide a more accurate price trend analysis.
According to Dom, “Bulls have successfully held both of these levels for 4 days now, something we haven’t seen in months. A move above yesterday’s high and I think BTC runs near 90k.” This perspective is supported by the recent bullish activities, hinting that Bitcoin could soon approach the $90,000 mark.
Market caution as Bitcoin tests key resistance levels
Despite the bullish sentiment, market observers are advised to proceed cautiously as Bitcoin nears the critical resistance level of approximately $86,000. João Wedson, founder of Alphractal, cautioned that a pullback may be necessary if Bitcoin surpasses this level, or bearish market control could take hold. This sentiment aligns with Alphractal’s analysis, which identifies $86,300 as a pivotal resistance zone that could present a bull trap if the price does not hold.
As the market continues to exhibit volatility, traders should remain vigilant, monitoring both macroeconomic conditions and technical indicators to navigate potential investment opportunities effectively.
Conclusion
In summary, Bitcoin’s rising transfer volumes and supportive technical indicators suggest a robust outlook as we approach late 2025. Investors should remain informed about market conditions and potential resistance levels while considering the implications of onchain analytics and trading volumes on future price movements. With a cautious approach, traders could capitalize on the renewed bullish momentum.
