The recent geopolitical events in the Middle East have exerted pressure on Bitcoin prices, as noted by K33 analysts on October 8. Despite this, the release of encouraging US employment statistics has fostered a revival in Bitcoin’s performance, particularly over the weekend. The analysts maintain that Bitcoin retains a bullish outlook as we progress into Q4, largely supported by developments in the FTX creditor repayment process. K33’s report, authored by industry experts Vetle Lunde and David Zimmerman, points to a potential commencement of compensation disbursements occurring between late Q4 2023 and early Q1 2025, likely around mid-November.
A crucial consideration for market participants revolves around the potential influx of repayment funds back into the crypto ecosystem. Notably, approximately $3.9 billion in claims have been acquired by credit funds, which reduces the likelihood of these funds re-entering the marketplace. Furthermore, a substantial portion of the remaining claims—estimated to be 33%—is held by sanctioned entities and unverified individuals who are unable to file claims. Consequently, K33 analysts project that about $8 billion remains actionable, with estimates suggesting that 20% to 40%, or roughly $2.4 billion, could reinvest back into digital currencies, driven largely by FTX’s active trader demographic.