On March 28th, prominent analyst Adam from Greek.live highlighted important data regarding cryptocurrency options expiry. A staggering 139,000 BTC options are set to expire, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.49 and a maximum pain point identified at $85,000, resulting in a total notional value of $12.1 billion. In addition, 301,000 ETH options are nearing expiry, with a ratio of 0.39, a maximum pain point of $2,400, and a notional value of $21.3 billion. This week marks a crucial quarterly expiration, capturing over 40% of total open interest, predominantly driven by BTC.
Despite challenges faced by Ethereum, the market structure concerning open interest has remained relatively stable. Recent fluctuations have seen implied volatility (IV) slightly declining, with BTC’s major term volatility dropping below 50% and ETH stabilizing around 60%. The current cryptocurrency landscape appears to lack the infusion of new capital, diminishing investor sentiment. Following the quarterly expiry, large holders are reportedly ramping up their selling activities, while options market makers are increasing their selling pressure, indicating the potential for further IV decreases and caution for prospective buyers in the near term.