On April 4th, COINOTAG News highlighted comments from on-chain data analyst Murphy regarding the current Bitcoin (BTC) market dynamics. Typically, in a bull market pullback, BTC frequently tests its Short-Term Holder Realized Price Cost (STH-RPC), currently positioned at $93,000. However, since February, BTC has not demonstrated a robust rebound, raising concerns among investors. Notably, data between November 2024 and January 2025 reveals that short-term holders ([STH](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/shorttermholder.asp)) accounted for 56% of realized profits, compared to 42% for long-term holders (LTH).
During the March 13th to March 25th recovery, the profit realization skewed significantly, with LTH profits reaching 70% while STH profits lagged at 10%. This shift indicates that cash-out behavior is now predominantly executed by long-term holders, as short-term holders struggle with margins. Historically, fundamental market phases see bottoms form when LTHs begin operating at a loss. Currently, the long-term holder’s cost basis is approximately $81,000, with over 300,000 BTC at stake.
Should BTC dip below $80,000, it would place these holdings into a state of loss, presenting a significant support level. As time progresses, more short-term investors become long-term holders, gradually elevating the LTH cost basis. Until this dynamic is resolved, the market is likely to continue oscillating within a framework focused on identifying rebounds rather than anticipating reversals.