On April 16th, QCP’s daily market report highlighted key shifts in the U.S. economic landscape, particularly surrounding tariff strategies. The U.S. government’s recent decision to exempt certain tariffs showcased a tactical pivot aimed at rejuvenating negotiations with China amidst escalating trade tensions. This notable development comes as the U.S. bond market signals warning signs, with the 10-year Treasury yield climbing to 4.6% and the 30-year yield surpassing 5%. Such fluctuations are critical, as they indicate a potential impact on **risk sentiment** and may provoke a need for intervention by the Federal Reserve.
The Fed’s recent communication suggests an increased focus on looming recession risks. Governor Waller’s remarks reflect a shift in narrative regarding inflation, deeming it “transitory,” a term previously associated with more persistent inflation periods. Market forecasts now anticipate as many as **3.5 rate cuts by 2025**, affecting investment strategies. In this context, **gold** is witnessing a revival as a leading safe-haven asset, particularly as traditional assets like U.S. Treasuries encounter volatility. Conversely, **Bitcoin** has yet to draw significant safe-haven interest, with market participants primarily seeking to hedge against potential downturns instead of embracing it as an alternative store of value.