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Onchain data reveals promising signs of a Bitcoin price rally, driven by stablecoin inflows and long-term holder behavior despite short-term price softness.
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Stablecoin accumulation patterns resemble those observed after major market shocks like the LUNA and FTX collapses, suggesting a potential breakout phase ahead.
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According to Bitcoin analyst Axel Adler Jr., the current stablecoin inflow trends could mark the launchpad for Bitcoin’s next significant rally.
Bitcoin’s onchain data signals a potential rally fueled by stablecoin inflows and HODLer activity, despite short-term demand weakness and price consolidation.
Stablecoin Inflows and Onchain Metrics Indicate Bitcoin Rally Potential
Recent onchain analytics highlight a critical phase for Bitcoin, where stablecoin inflows are mirroring accumulation patterns seen after the Terra/LUNA and FTX crises. These periods historically marked major market bottoms and subsequent rallies. The 30-day moving average of stablecoin inflows has entered negative territory, a phenomenon Axel Adler Jr. identifies as the “blue zones” that signal suppressed selling pressure and a buildup of latent demand. This trend suggests that market participants are increasingly reluctant to liquidate holdings, laying the groundwork for a potential price surge.
Network Activity Reflects HODLer Dominance and Supply Squeeze
Despite Bitcoin maintaining a price level above $100,000, network activity metrics such as the New UTXO 30-day SMA remain subdued, hovering around 570,000. This figure is significantly lower than the 850,000–1 million range observed during the 2024 bull run, indicating a scarcity of new coins entering circulation. The disparity points to a strong “HODL” phase where long-term holders are locking up their assets, effectively reducing available supply. Should the New UTXO metric rise above 700,000, it would signal renewed participation from fresh buyers, potentially catalyzing a robust bull market driven by both retail and institutional investors.
Whale Activity and Exchange Flows Support Bullish Outlook
Additional onchain indicators reinforce this bullish narrative. The Exchange Flow Multiple, which compares short-term to long-term BTC inflows, has declined to levels historically associated with seller exhaustion. Concurrently, large transactions now account for 96% of exchange flows, a threshold often preceding significant price expansions. This whale activity suggests strategic repositioning ahead of anticipated price movements, underscoring the importance of monitoring large-scale transactions as a leading indicator of market dynamics.
Short-Term Demand Weakness Poses Risk Amid Structural Strength
Despite these encouraging signals, short-term risks persist. The Apparent Demand metric has turned negative for the first time in two months, reflecting insufficient new buyer demand to absorb selling pressure from miners and some long-term holders. This imbalance introduces the possibility of a near-term price correction, especially if momentum stalls near resistance levels around $110,000. Investors should remain cautious, as a temporary pullback could precede a more sustained upward trend if fresh demand materializes.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s onchain data paints a complex but optimistic picture: stablecoin inflows and HODLer behavior suggest a foundation for a significant rally, while whale activity signals strategic positioning for price appreciation. However, short-term demand weakness and potential supply-demand imbalances warrant careful observation. Market participants should watch key metrics like New UTXO activity and stablecoin inflows closely, as these will likely dictate Bitcoin’s trajectory in the coming weeks. Staying informed and responsive to these indicators can provide a strategic advantage in navigating Bitcoin’s evolving market landscape.
