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- The current Bitcoin price behavior and its deviations from expected cyclical patterns remain a central theme of analysis.
- Crypto analyst Rekt Capital recently shared new insights on Bitcoin’s potential peak during the ongoing bull run, which is progressing at an atypical pace compared to historical data.
- Bitcoin’s rapid pace has not been sustained and the acceleration advantage has decreased to about 210 days compared to previous cycles.
Bitcoin’s current price behavior is deviating from expected cyclical patterns. Crypto analyst Rekt Capital offers new insights into Bitcoin’s potential peak during the ongoing bull run.
When Will Bitcoin Peak This Cycle?
Rekt Capital pointed out that as of mid-March 2024, Bitcoin had not only reached new all-time highs but had done so approximately 260 days ahead of its traditional halving-induced cycles. However, this rapid pace has not been sustained. Over the past two months, Bitcoin has been in a phase of consolidation, which has altered its trajectory. The acceleration advantage has decreased to about 210 days compared to previous cycles.
Potential Synchronization With Halving Cycles
Despite the current accelerated cycle, there remains a possibility that further deceleration could align Bitcoin more closely with its halving cycle. In past cycles, such as those between 2015-2017 and 2019-2021, Bitcoin peaked at 518 and 546 days post-halving, respectively. If Bitcoin’s rate of acceleration continues to decrease, the cycle may eventually resynchronize, potentially delaying the peak to between mid-September and mid-October 2025.
Increasing Duration Beyond Old Highs
A notable trend is the increasing duration for which Bitcoin maintains levels beyond its old highs. In 2013, this period lasted 268 days, in 2017 it extended to 280 days, and by 2021, it had increased to 315 days. This pattern suggests an incremental extension of approximately 14 to 35 days per cycle.
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Conclusion
Given the current trends and historical data, the projected window for the next bull market peak could be set between late November 2024 and late January 2025. However, if the rate of acceleration continues to decrease, the peak could potentially extend to between mid-December 2024 and early March 2025. At press time, BTC traded at $64,262.
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