- After Grayscale’s victory in the lawsuit, analysts predict that the chances of the US approving the country’s first spot Bitcoin ETF are higher.
- As a significant development, Bloomberg analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart announced that the chances of approving spot ETFs in the US have improved.
- This came after the US Court’s decision on August 29, 2023. With this decision, it was deemed unfair for the SEC to reject Grayscale’s request to convert its Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) product into a spot Bitcoin ETF.
ETF analysts have recalculated the probability of spot Bitcoin ETFs being approved after Grayscale’s victory against the SEC.
Probability of Approval for Spot Bitcoin ETFs is Increasing
After Grayscale’s victory against the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), analysts predict that the chances of the country approving its first spot Bitcoin ETF are higher.
As a significant development, Bloomberg analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart announced that the chances of approving spot ETFs in the US have improved. This came after the US Court’s decision on August 29, 2023. With this decision, it was deemed unfair for the SEC to reject Grayscale’s request to convert its Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) product into a spot Bitcoin ETF. Balchunas stated that the chances of approving spot ETFs have now increased to 75% in 2023, which means that the probability of approval is higher than negative possibilities. He tweeted as follows:
“James Seyffart and I are raising the likelihood of launching spot Bitcoin ETFs to 75% this year (95% by the end of 2024). We had previously factored in Grayscale’s win to our 65% rate, but the decisiveness and unity of the decision were beyond expectations and left the SEC with ‘very little wiggle room’.”
The analyst also left little possibility for the approval of ETFs to be delayed to later stages in 2024. Therefore, new developments can occur just in time for a major Bitcoin price rally before the critical Bitcoin Halving event in the second quarter of 2024. Analysts also noted that the SEC may struggle to justify further rejections of spot ETF applications. Balchunas said, “The institution will struggle to justify more rejections as it faces the countdown date.”
Grayscale’s Victory Accelerates the Bitcoin ETF Race
Meanwhile, major financial institutions like Blackrock and Fidelity are trying to obtain the first spot Bitcoin ETF from federal regulatory agencies. After Grayscale’s victory, the crypto community agrees that the chances of ETF approval are now higher in the near future.
