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Bitcoin’s price action in June faces uncertainty as renewed tariff wars trigger significant outflows from U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs, signaling potential volatility ahead.
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Market analysts from QCP Capital and CoinShares highlight that geopolitical tensions, particularly between the U.S. and China, are influencing investor sentiment and ETF flows.
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According to COINOTAG sources, “Tariff tensions will likely drive the macro narrative through June, with major policy decisions expected only after July 8,” underscoring a cautious market outlook.
Bitcoin ETF outflows amid U.S.-China tariff tensions may keep BTC price range-bound between $100k-$110k in June, warns QCP Capital.
Impact of U.S.-China Tariff Disputes on Bitcoin ETF Flows and Price Dynamics
The recent escalation in U.S.-China tariff disputes has directly influenced Bitcoin’s market dynamics, particularly reflected in the reversal of inflows into U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs. After a robust six-week period attracting over $9.6 billion in weekly inflows, these ETFs experienced $157 million in outflows last week. This shift coincided with Bitcoin’s price retreating below the $110,000 mark following a peak above this level. Investor caution amid geopolitical uncertainty appears to be a primary driver, as tariff-related news creates a risk-off environment that tempers appetite for crypto assets.
ETF Flow Reversal and Market Sentiment: Insights from Industry Experts
James Butterfill, Head of Research at CoinShares, noted that the week started with strong Bitcoin inflows but reversed following a New York Court ruling that declared certain U.S. tariffs illegal. This legal development, combined with ongoing tariff tensions, led to minor outflows totaling $8 million by week’s end. Notably, the outflows were concentrated in prominent funds such as Ark 21Shares and Fidelity, indicating a broad-based investor response. These movements reflect how macroeconomic and geopolitical factors are increasingly intertwined with crypto market behavior, influencing institutional investment decisions.
QCP Capital’s Range-Bound BTC Price Forecast Amid Tariff-Driven Uncertainty
QCP Capital has provided a measured outlook for Bitcoin, projecting a range-bound price action between $100,000 and $110,000 throughout June. The firm highlights that tariff tensions will dominate the macroeconomic narrative until major policy decisions are anticipated post-July 8. This environment fosters a “risk-off” stance among investors, as evidenced by compressed frontend volatility, normalized risk reversals, and flat perpetual funding rates. These indicators collectively suggest muted price movements and a potential pause in Bitcoin’s rally, emphasizing the importance of monitoring geopolitical developments closely.
Profit-Taking and Demand Dynamics: Glassnode’s Analytical Perspective
Glassnode’s recent analysis underscores the delicate balance between profit-taking and new buyer demand in sustaining Bitcoin’s price momentum. While profit-taking activities could stall the rally, especially if new buyer interest diminishes, current data indicates significant demand from new entrants alongside modest profit-taking. This dynamic suggests that Bitcoin remains fundamentally strong but vulnerable to shifts in market sentiment. Investors are advised to watch for cohort rotation patterns, which may signal short-term consolidation or renewed momentum depending on demand sustainability.
Source: Soso Value
Source: CoinShares
Source: Glassnode
Conclusion
As geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China intensify, Bitcoin’s market is poised for a period of cautious trading characterized by range-bound price action and subdued volatility. Institutional ETF flows have reversed amid tariff-related uncertainties, reflecting broader risk-off sentiment. While new buyer demand remains a positive signal, profit-taking pressures and macroeconomic headwinds could limit upward momentum in the near term. Investors should closely monitor tariff developments and market sentiment shifts to navigate this complex environment effectively.
