By COINOTAG — Published: 2025-10-16 | Updated: 2025-10-16
Solana has struggled to flip $200 to support because sustained selling and profit-taking compressed demand around $180–$200. On-chain indicators — including cost-basis distribution, Hodler net position change and capitulation spikes — point to accumulation in the $180–$193 band but require Bitcoin strength to confirm a durable rally.
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Persistent selling and profit-taking kept Solana below $200.
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Cost-basis heatmaps show $180–$193 as the critical accumulation zone for a rebound.
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Data highlight a 23.6% intraday drawdown on Oct 10 and a 15.11% weekly loss, signaling forced selling then easing.
Solana $200: Solana hasn’t flipped $200 to support—on-chain Glassnode metrics show selling pressure and key $180–$193 accumulation; read levels, risks, and next triggers.
Why has Solana been unable to flip $200 to support?
Solana’s inability to flip $200 to support stems from concentrated selling and profit-taking that pushed short-term demand below the psychological $200 mark. On-chain metrics show forced selling and supply re-distribution into lower cost-basis buckets, so a sustainable flip will require renewed accumulation and broader market strength.
Can Solana recover from the $180–$193 accumulation zone?
On-chain evidence suggests the $180–$193 band is the most probable launchpad for a recovery. Cost-basis distribution charts show elevated supply and prior price reactions in this area, while the Hodler Net Position Change has moved from deeply negative toward zero — indicating profit-taking is easing. However, a confirmed recovery is conditional: renewed buying at these levels and macro tailwinds from Bitcoin are needed to reduce downside risk. Authoritative on-chain data referenced: Glassnode.
The case for a Solana rally
Source: Glassnode
The cost-basis distribution (CBD) highlights price bands where holders accumulated historically. Recent behavior shows supply fading at higher buckets as holders reduced positions while prices advanced; the reverse — concentrated supply at lower buckets near $180–$195 — now provides potential support. Historical price reactions in August and September mirror current dynamics: drops below a major cost-basis level, followed by consolidation and retests.
Source: Glassnode
Hodler Net Position Change has been negative since mid-September, reflecting net reductions in long-term holder positions as they realized gains. That metric has since trended toward zero, indicating profit-taking is abating. When combined with the CBD, the picture is one of distribution followed by gradual accumulation — supportive conditions for a rally if buyers step in at $180–$193.
Spikes in forced selling indicate a local SOL bottom
Source: Glassnode
The profit-pressure metric peaked in mid-September, coinciding with heavier selling. Over the past three weeks it has fallen, which suggests immediate profit-related selling has reduced. Simultaneously, capitulation spikes — periods where holders sell at a loss — have been visible and are often associated with local lows.
Source: Glassnode
Capitulation reads show increased loss-taking that typically marks local bottoms. The CBD also recorded a reduction in supply at the $230 bucket after Oct 9, consistent with fearful selling of higher-cost positions. These signs collectively point to a plausible local bottom forming near the $180–$190 band, but the broader market backdrop remains decisive.
Over the past week, Solana (SOL) has shed 15.11% — most of that loss occurring on Oct 10 when SOL dropped from $220.93 to $168.79, a 23.6% intraday drawdown before a weekend bounce. Short-term recovery odds improve if Bitcoin (BTC) resumes strength above $117k; conversely, BTC sliding below $108k or $102k would materially raise downside risk for SOL.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much did Solana drop on Oct 10 and why does it matter?
Solana dropped 23.6% on Oct 10, falling from $220.93 to $168.79. This sharp drawdown concentrated forced selling and shifted average cost-basis levels downward, increasing the importance of the $180–$193 zone as a short-term support region for recovery.
Is Solana likely to rebound soon?
Short-term rebounds are possible as selling pressure eases and holders re-accumulate around $180–$193. However, a durable rally depends on broader market cues — notably Bitcoin’s trend — and on sustained buying that absorbs the remaining supply at lower cost-basis levels.
Key Takeaways
- On-chain signals favor a local bottom: Capitulation spikes and falling profit pressure suggest the worst of short-term selling may be over.
- $180–$193 is the critical band: Cost-basis and distribution data identify this range as the most likely accumulation zone for a rebound.
- Macro confirmation required: A lasting flip of $200 needs Bitcoin strength above key resistances and continued buying pressure on Solana.
Conclusion
COINOTAG analysis shows that Solana’s failure to flip $200 to support has been driven by concentrated profit-taking and forced selling that reshaped the cost-basis landscape. On-chain metrics from Glassnode point to $180–$193 as a likely accumulation zone and the site of a potential local bottom, but a confirmed rally will rely on Bitcoin regaining momentum and sustained buying. Monitor on-chain supply metrics and BTC direction for the clearest signals; COINOTAG will continue to report updates as data evolves.
