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Standard Chartered projects Bitcoin to reach unprecedented highs by late 2025, driven by robust ETF inflows and corporate treasury acquisitions.
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The bank’s latest analysis challenges traditional Bitcoin halving cycle expectations, signaling a shift in market dynamics fueled by institutional demand.
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Geoff Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered, highlights that Bitcoin’s price trajectory is now decoupled from historical post-halving declines.
Standard Chartered forecasts Bitcoin surging past $135,000 in 2025, driven by strong ETF and corporate buying, signaling a new era beyond traditional halving impacts.
Bitcoin Halving Cycle’s Influence Diminished by Institutional Demand
Standard Chartered’s recent report provides a comprehensive reassessment of Bitcoin’s price behavior in relation to its halving cycle, a historically pivotal event occurring approximately every four years that halves mining rewards. Traditionally, these halving events have triggered significant price volatility, often culminating in a peak followed by a correction roughly 18 months later. However, the bank’s research indicates that the 2024 halving event marks a departure from this pattern. The surge in institutional interest, particularly through exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and corporate treasury purchases, has introduced new market dynamics that mitigate the typical post-halving price declines.
Geoff Kendrick emphasizes that these institutional inflows provide sustained upward momentum, suggesting Bitcoin’s price is less vulnerable to the cyclical downturns observed in previous halving periods. This shift underscores the maturation of the crypto market, where traditional retail-driven cycles are increasingly supplemented by strategic, long-term institutional investment.
ETF and Corporate Treasury Buying: The New Market Catalysts
The report highlights that the influx of capital from ETFs and corporate treasuries is a critical factor reshaping Bitcoin’s price trajectory. Unlike earlier cycles, where retail speculation dominated, these institutional actors bring substantial and consistent demand. ETFs offer investors regulated, accessible exposure to Bitcoin, enhancing liquidity and market stability. Concurrently, corporations allocating Bitcoin to their treasuries signal confidence in the asset’s long-term value, further bolstering demand.
Standard Chartered’s forecast of Bitcoin reaching $135,000 by Q3 2025 and potentially surpassing $200,000 by year-end reflects this robust institutional backing. This outlook is supported by data showing sustained ETF inflows and growing corporate adoption, which collectively create a formidable support base for Bitcoin’s price.
Long-Term Outlook: Bitcoin’s Path to $500,000 by 2028
Beyond the immediate post-halving period, Standard Chartered maintains a bullish long-term perspective. The bank projects Bitcoin could achieve a valuation of $500,000 per coin by 2028, driven by continued institutional adoption and evolving market infrastructure. This projection aligns with broader trends of increasing regulatory clarity, enhanced custody solutions, and expanding use cases for Bitcoin as a store of value and hedge against inflation.
While acknowledging potential short-term volatility, particularly in late 2025 due to historical correction patterns, the report underscores that the fundamental drivers of demand have shifted. This evolution suggests that Bitcoin’s price cycles may become less pronounced but more sustainable, supported by solid institutional frameworks rather than speculative momentum alone.
Market Implications and Investor Considerations
For investors, Standard Chartered’s analysis signals a critical inflection point in Bitcoin’s market dynamics. The diminishing influence of the halving cycle as a sole price determinant necessitates a broader evaluation of institutional trends and macroeconomic factors. Investors are encouraged to monitor ETF inflows, corporate treasury activities, and regulatory developments as key indicators of Bitcoin’s future trajectory.
Moreover, the report advises caution regarding potential price choppiness in the latter half of 2025, reflecting residual uncertainty from previous halving cycles. This suggests that while the overall trend is bullish, tactical positioning and risk management remain essential for market participants.
Conclusion
Standard Chartered’s forward-looking analysis redefines the Bitcoin halving narrative by emphasizing the transformative impact of institutional demand. The traditional post-halving price decline appears increasingly obsolete in the face of strong ETF and corporate buying, positioning Bitcoin for significant growth through 2025 and beyond. Investors should consider this evolving landscape carefully, recognizing that Bitcoin’s maturation as an asset class is reshaping its price dynamics and long-term potential.
