- On-chain data shows that if the historical pattern means anything, there could be a significant level of $33,700 for Bitcoin.
- In the context of the current debate, the cost of the entire market doesn’t matter, only the cost of a specific segment: those who bought their coins less than six months ago and up to three years ago.
- If this historical pattern means anything, then Bitcoin surpassing the $33,700 level in the near future could become the starting point for the next major bull run.
The price level of $33,700 could play a critical role in Bitcoin making a strong start to its next bull run.
$33,700 in Bitcoin Could Be a Turning Point
If the historical pattern means anything, on-chain data shows that there could be a significant level of $33,700 for Bitcoin. In a new article on X, analyst Ali shared a chart that could shed light on the possible path BTC might follow.
The relevant indicator here is “realized price,” which tells us at what price the average investor in the Bitcoin market acquired their coins. When the asset’s spot price exceeds this line, it means that holders generally have a net profit in their coins at the moment. On the other hand, if BTC is below this level, it indicates that the average investor is currently at a loss.
In the context of the current debate, the cost of the entire market doesn’t matter, only the cost of a specific segment: those who bought their coins less than six months ago and up to three years ago. Here is a chart showing how the cost of Bitcoin investors in this segment has changed over the years:
Investors who bought coins six months to three years ago are actually part of a larger “long-term holder” (LTH) group. And LTHs are investors who bought their coins at least six months ago.
In the chart, the analyst also included data for the cost of the entire LTH group, which is currently around $20,300, meaning the spot price is well above this line at the moment.
However, since the realized price for the owners from six months to three years ago is currently above the spot price, at approximately $33,755, this segment of LTHs is currently clearly at a loss.
The Fate of Bitcoin Can Be Determined
It is evident that the Bitcoin price did not touch this level when the bear market first began in 2022. If the cryptocurrency can rise towards this level and eventually retest it, its fate could improve.
As Ali pointed out, BTC has observed significant increases every time the asset surpasses this level and HODLers start making profits again.
Three examples of this pattern are clearly visible in the chart. The 2017 bull run, the April 2019 rally, and the 2021 bull run all occurred when the cost of LTHs from six months to three years ago successfully broke their realized price.
If this historical pattern means anything, then Bitcoin surpassing the $33,700 level in the near future could become the starting point for the next major bull run.
