- Ether-based ETFs in the US may witness a substantial $15 billion net inflow within 18 months.
- Despite high anticipations for the ETF launch next week, a greater number of traders are adopting short positions on Ethereum.
- Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan remains optimistic, forecasting strong performance despite initial skepticism from analysts.
Discover how US spot Ethereum ETFs could revolutionize the market with a potential $15 billion inflow, despite current trading sentiment.
Ethereum ETFs: Projections and Potential $15 Billion Inflows by 2025
Hougan bases his confidence on comparing Bitcoin and Ethereum market shares and analyzing ETF assets under management (AUM) in Europe and Canada. These metrics provide a promising outlook for the future of ETH ETFs in the United States.
Current Market Capitalization and Comparative Data
At the latest evaluation, Bitcoin’s market cap stands at $1.19 trillion, while Ethereum’s is approximately $405 billion. According to Hougan, historical data shows Bitcoin with a 74% market dominance and Ethereum with 26%. This pattern mirrors across European and Canadian ETP markets. In Europe, Bitcoin ETPs account for €4,601 million (78%) of AUM, while Ethereum ETPs hold €1,305 million (22%). Similarly, Canadian Bitcoin ETPs possess $4,942 CAD (77%) in AUM compared to Ethereum’s $1,475 CAD (23%).
Adjusting Projections for the US Market
Hougan concludes that if US-based Bitcoin ETFs can accumulate $100 billion in AUM by the end of 2025, Ethereum ETFs could potentially achieve $35 billion, in line with its 26% market share. However, with the current AUM of Bitcoin ETFs at $52 billion, there are further adjustments to consider. Hougan clarifies,
“This doesn’t equate to $35 billion in direct inflows. Given ETHE’s conversion will contribute $10 billion in assets, the adjusted estimate hovers around $25 billion.”
Factoring European market shares, the net inflow projection reduces to $18 billion. Considering the less attractive profits from carry trading non-staked Ethereum assets, Hougan reduces expectations further to $15 billion, a figure that would still symbolize significant success for Ethereum ETFs.
ETH Traders’ Reactions to ETF Launch Speculations
Currently, Ethereum is trading at around $3,300, having fallen about 15% from its peak of $3,900, which followed the initial partial ETH ETF approvals in May. Market sentiment remains mixed as traders weigh potential gains against current losses.
Prediction markets like Polymarket suggest a 75% probability of the ETH ETF launching next week. However, contrary to typical bullish expectations, the number of traders shorting Ethereum has increased, with short positions rising from 49% to 51% in the recent past.
Conclusion
In summary, despite prevailing skepticism, the potential launch of US Ethereum ETFs promises substantial inflows and market impact. While short-term trading behavior shows a bearish tilt, the long-term outlook, as projected by experts like Matt Hougan, signals a transformative period ahead for Ethereum-based investment products.
