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As Bitcoin (BTC) draws parallels with its previous bull cycles, investors are questioning whether HODLing remains the most effective strategy.
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The price action observed in Bitcoin reflects historical bullish trends, laying the groundwork for potential new all-time highs.
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According to a recent analysis, Bitcoin’s price movement bears significant resemblance to its trajectory in 2017, a critical period for the cryptocurrency.
This article explores Bitcoin’s current market trends, comparing them to past cycles to assess whether long-term holding will benefit investors.
Bitcoin’s RSI signals a repeat of 2017 cycle
A recent X (formerly Twitter) post highlighted that Bitcoin has returned to critically low RSI Bollinger Band % levels. This setup indicates the cryptocurrency may be oversold and ready for a recovery.
When BTC’s RSI Bollinger Band % hits these low points, it often precedes bullish movements, suggesting a rebound could be on the horizon. Historical instances from 2013, 2016, and 2020 support this hypothesis, as Bitcoin surged to new highs shortly thereafter.
Currently, RSI Bollinger Bands are mimicking the scenario from 2017, a time when Bitcoin bottomed below $1,000 before a dramatic 1,500% increase to $19,086 by Q4.
Source: X
Despite the backdrop of $83,078, the trajectory of BTC remains uncertain. Analysts caution that a definitive local bottom hasn’t yet materialized, with institutional outflows increasing and long-term holders’ supply reverting to pre-election levels—an indicator of short-term instability.
Nevertheless, Bitcoin’s historical patterns indicate that the potential for growth is still high. This raises the question: could HODLing prove to be the most prudent long-term investment strategy?
Identifying the next market top
Even though a strong bottom hasn’t yet been established, there are no clear indicators suggesting an immediate market peak either.
Fear of missing out (FOMO) continues to rise, as exchange reserves have fallen to their lowest levels in a year, suggesting long-term accumulation rather than profit-taking.
Noteworthy is that, despite Bitcoin experiencing a 22% pullback from its prior $109,000 peak, the supply of BTC on exchanges continues to diminish—a sign that investors are inclined to hold rather than liquidate.
Source: CryptoQuant
For Bitcoin to mirror the monumental growth seen in its 2017 bull cycle, this accumulation trend must persist. Should this trend continue, historical data suggests the market may not see its true cycle top for another nine months.
Even amidst macroeconomic uncertainties and equity market liquidations, Bitcoin has demonstrated resilience, maintaining a range between $77,000 and $80,000—a reflection of strong investor confidence.
Looking ahead, breaking through the $90,000 mark remains a key hurdle. However, ongoing accumulation and growing market confidence could propel Bitcoin toward the unprecedented six-digit price range.
Conclusion
In summary, Bitcoin is currently navigating a complex landscape that resembles its 2017 bull cycle. With investors largely holding onto their assets and market signals indicating potential future growth, HODLing may still be the best strategy in the current economic environment. Investors should stay informed and pay close attention to ongoing developments in the cryptocurrency space.
