Bitcoin May See Short-Term Volatility After $4.8B Options Expiry as $3.83B BTC Positions Tilt Put-Heavy

• $4.8B expired on Deribit, including BTC and ETH

• Expiry concentrated in Bitcoin ($3.83B) with ETH at $948M, tilting BTC toward put-heavy hedges

• Expiry represented ~8% of total open interest and may cause transient volatility in the coming sessions

Deribit options expiry: $4.8B expired across BTC and ETH, elevating volatility—read the breakdown and hedging insights. Explore the analysis and next steps.

What is the market impact of the Deribit options expiry?

The Deribit options expiry removed over $4.8 billion notional from BTC and ETH options markets, shifting short-term risk as traders close or roll positions. Immediate effects typically include elevated intraday volatility and price pressure where large put or call clusters existed.

How did the $4.8B expiry break down between BTC and ETH?

Bitcoin options accounted for approximately $3.83 billion of the expiry, while Ethereum options totaled roughly $948 million. BTC expiry showed a put/call bias (~1.31 put/call), while ETH leaned toward call interest (~0.82 put/call). These ratios indicate a heavier downside hedge presence in BTC.

Why does a put-heavy BTC positioning matter?

Put-heavy options indicate more downside protection or bearish bets, which can translate to selling pressure as delta hedges are adjusted. When large put blocks expire, market makers may reduce short-delta exposure, potentially amplifying short-term downside moves if bids thin out.

When should traders expect volatility after expiry?

Volatility often spikes within 24–72 hours after major expiries as positions are settled and liquidity rebalances. Historical patterns show transient moves rather than sustained trends, and macro events can either mitigate or exacerbate the expiry impact.

Frequently Asked Questions

How much notional expired and how was it distributed?

Over $4.8 billion expired in total: about $3.83 billion in Bitcoin options and $948 million in Ethereum options. BTC showed a put/call tilt (~1.31), while ETH had more call interest (~0.82).

Will this expiry trigger sustained market trends?

Expiry-driven moves are typically short-lived. Sustained trends require reinforcement from macro catalysts or persistent changes in liquidity and positioning.

Key Takeaways

• Scale of expiry: $4.8B notional expired on Deribit, concentrated in BTC ($3.83B) and ETH ($948M).
• Put-heavy BTC: Bitcoin expiry was skewed toward puts, indicating downside hedging and potential short-term pressure.
• Volatility window: Expect elevated intraday volatility for 24–72 hours as positions settle and liquidity adjusts.

Conclusion

The Deribit options expiry removed a significant $4.8 billion notional from BTC and ETH markets, producing a put-heavy bias in Bitcoin and signaling a near-term volatility window. COINOTAG will monitor order flow, open interest changes, and macro catalysts to inform next-step analysis and risk guidance.

Publication date: 2025-08-22 | Author: COINOTAG