PlanB Suggests Bitcoin Peak Could Lie Ahead as On-Chain Metrics Remain Cool

• Bitcoin’s realized price at $55,200 remains far below current market levels of $111,000, indicating no cycle top.

• RSI and MVRV Z-Score metrics are below historical peak thresholds, supporting mid-cycle positioning.

• Data from CryptoQuant and Santiment highlight that only three prior cycles limit pattern reliability, with peaks possibly extending to 2026-2028.

Discover PlanB’s analysis on Bitcoin’s 2025 cycle: Has the peak passed? Explore on-chain data showing room for growth. Stay informed on crypto trends—subscribe to COINOTAG updates today.

What is PlanB Predicting for Bitcoin’s Current Market Cycle?

PlanB’s Bitcoin cycle prediction indicates that the cryptocurrency is likely in the middle of its bull phase rather than approaching a peak, based on historical patterns and current on-chain indicators. The analyst, known for developing the Stock-to-Flow model, emphasizes that traditional four-year halving cycles may not fully apply due to evolving market dynamics. This view challenges narratives of an imminent downturn following Bitcoin’s recent high of $126,000.

PlanB shared these insights in a recent post on X, a social media platform, arguing against assumptions of a cycle top tied strictly to halving events. According to data referenced from established analytics platforms like CryptoQuant and Santiment, key metrics such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and realized price have not yet signaled extreme overvaluation. This suggests Bitcoin could experience continued upward momentum, potentially extending the bull market into late 2025 or beyond.

The Stock-to-Flow model, which PlanB popularized, treats Bitcoin as a scarce asset similar to precious metals, projecting price targets based on supply halvings. While past cycles have shown peaks around 18 months post-halving, PlanB notes that only three full cycles exist for analysis, making rigid predictions unreliable. Institutional involvement, including ETF inflows reported by financial authorities, appears to be stabilizing prices rather than fueling speculative bubbles.

How Do On-Chain Metrics Support PlanB’s Bitcoin Cycle Outlook?

On-chain data provides concrete evidence backing PlanB’s assessment that Bitcoin’s cycle has not climaxed. For instance, Bitcoin’s realized price, calculated as the average cost basis of all coins in circulation, stands at approximately $55,200 according to CryptoQuant analytics as of October 2025. This figure contrasts sharply with the spot price hovering near $111,000, a spread that historically widens dramatically at cycle tops—often exceeding 5x during peaks in 2017 and 2021.

Supporting this, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on weekly charts remains subdued at levels below 70, far from the 80+ readings that preceded previous bull market reversals. PlanB highlighted in his X post that the 200-week moving average also shows no parabolic deviation, a common precursor to tops. Expert analysts from firms like Glassnode corroborate these observations, noting that long-term holder behavior—measured by cohorts holding over 155 days—reflects accumulation rather than distribution.

Source: X

Furthermore, the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Z-Score, a metric from Santiment that standardizes profitability ratios, currently reads at 2.56. This is well within normal ranges and distant from the 8-10 threshold observed at prior cycle highs. “These indicators collectively point to a market that is healthy but not frothy,” PlanB stated, underscoring that profit-taking pressures are minimal among major holders.

Institutional adoption plays a pivotal role here. Reports from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) indicate over $50 billion in Bitcoin ETF assets under management by mid-2025, dwarfing retail-driven volumes from earlier cycles. This shift reduces volatility, as funds rebalance methodically rather than reacting to hype. PlanB’s analysis aligns with findings from Chainalysis, which reported a 25% year-over-year increase in institutional wallet activity, suggesting sustained demand.

Source: CryptoQuant

PlanB also cautions against over-relying on the halving timeline. “Three cycles are insufficient for a robust pattern,” he explained on X. Peaks could materialize in 2026, 2027, or even 2028, influenced by macroeconomic factors like interest rates and regulatory clarity. This perspective is echoed by economists at the Federal Reserve, who note cryptocurrencies’ growing integration into global finance.

Frequently Asked Questions

Has Bitcoin Already Peaked in Its 2025 Cycle According to PlanB?

PlanB asserts that Bitcoin has not peaked in 2025, citing on-chain data from CryptoQuant and Santiment showing metrics like realized price at $55,200 and MVRV Z-Score at 2.56, both far from historical top signals. This suggests the bull run may continue, driven by institutional inflows rather than retail frenzy. Investors should monitor these indicators for shifts.

What Role Do Institutions Play in Bitcoin’s Current Market Cycle?

Institutions are stabilizing Bitcoin’s cycle by providing consistent demand through ETFs and corporate treasuries, reducing the sharp swings seen in past retail-dominated phases. According to SEC filings, ETF inflows reached $50 billion by October 2025, supporting prices around $110,000 while metrics like RSI stay moderate. This fosters a more mature market environment.

Key Takeaways

• Bitcoin Mid-Cycle Status: On-chain signals indicate no peak yet, with potential extension beyond 2025 halving patterns.
• Key Metrics Unalarmed: Realized price ($55K) and MVRV Z-Score (2.56) remain below overheating levels, per CryptoQuant and Santiment data.
• Institutional Influence: Growing ETF assets and holder accumulation point to sustained growth; track regulatory updates for opportunities.

Source: Santiment

Conclusion

PlanB’s Bitcoin cycle prediction underscores a market far from exhaustion, with on-chain metrics like realized price and MVRV Z-Score affirming mid-cycle strength amid institutional dominance. As Bitcoin trades near $110,000 in late 2025, COINOTAG analysis highlights the need for vigilance on evolving patterns. Published October 20, 2025, by COINOTAG—last updated October 21, 2025. Investors are encouraged to review official blockchain data sources and consult financial advisors for personalized strategies in this dynamic landscape.