Alex Thorn Says Market May Be Underpricing Odds of US Forming Strategic Bitcoin Reserve This Year Amid Industry Skepticism

• US government momentum: executive order + Treasury study directive.

• Key voices diverge on timing — immediate formation vs. delayed accumulation.

• Recent global moves (Kyrgyzstan, Indonesia interest) increase strategic urgency.

Strategic Bitcoin Reserve news: US formation chances rising; read latest developments and expert viewpoints. Stay informed with COINOTAG’s quick analysis.

What is the US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and why does it matter?

The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve is a proposed US government program to hold Bitcoin as a strategic asset. It aims to secure digital-asset exposure for macroeconomic or national strategic purposes, potentially changing reserve diversification and global crypto dynamics within months of formal adoption.

Galaxy Digital’s Alex Thorn says the market is “underpricing” the odds of a US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve forming this year, though others are skeptical.

There is a high likelihood that the United States government will form the highly anticipated Strategic Bitcoin Reserve by the end of this year, says Galaxy Digital’s head of firmwide research, Alex Thorn. Other industry executives remain cautious about timing and scale.

How likely is the US to announce a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve this year?

Alex Thorn (Galaxy Digital) argues the market is underpricing the announcement probability. Recent actions include an executive order establishing the concept and a congressional bill directing the Treasury to study operational feasibility and technical considerations. These steps increase near-term odds, though implementation timing remains debated.

What recent developments indicate movement on the plan?

US President Trump signed an executive order formally establishing the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and a US Digital Asset Stockpile in March, but a detailed implementation plan has not been released yet.

Source: Alex Thorn

On Tuesday, US lawmakers introduced a bill directing the US Treasury to produce a report on the feasibility and technical considerations for a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. That formal review would outline custody, accounting, and acquisition pathways.

Media outlets have reported that the administration’s crypto policy documents still reference interest in a strategic Bitcoin reserve. Industry voices remain split: some expect an announcement in 2025, while others project a 2026 timeline to avoid revealing accumulation strategy prematurely.

Why do some experts think the US might delay accumulation?

Critics argue the administration may avoid public announcements until after reaching initial accumulation targets. This approach would limit market front-running risk and allow the US to build positions discreetly. Conversely, advocates warn that delay risks other nations advancing their own reserves first.

How could global developments influence US timing?

Recent moves abroad — Kyrgyzstan advancing a state crypto reserve bill and Indonesian discussions with local Bitcoin advocates — increase geopolitical incentives for the US to act. If other countries formalize national crypto holdings, strategic pressures on the US may intensify.

Frequently Asked Questions

When might the US formally declare holdings for a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve?

Timelines vary: some analysts expect an announcement in late 2025 following Treasury study outputs; others predict public accumulation will be deferred until 2026 to preserve strategic discretion.

What would a US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve mean for markets?

Official US holdings would likely reduce perceived supply, increase institutional confidence, and alter macro hedging strategies. Market impact depends on acquisition methods and disclosed targets.

Key Takeaways

• Momentum exists: Executive orders and a congressional study increase the chance of an SBR announcement.
• Timing is contested: Experts disagree whether formal accumulation begins in 2025 or is delayed into 2026.
• Global context matters: Moves by other countries to consider state crypto reserves heighten strategic incentives for the US.

Conclusion

The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve remains a high-priority policy idea with growing institutional and political signals. While Galaxy Digital’s Alex Thorn sees elevated odds for a 2025 announcement, other market participants expect slower, more discreet accumulation. COINOTAG will monitor Treasury reports and legislative developments as implementation details emerge.

Published: 2025-09-13 | Updated: 2025-09-13