SOL: Rise or Fall? January 13, 2026 Scenario Analysis

SOL is currently positioned at a critical juncture. Price at $138.88 level, just above strong support $138.4563 and under pressure below EMA20 ($138.96). While the overall uptrend continues, short-term bearish signals (MACD negative histogram, Supertrend bearish) make both scenarios possible. RSI neutral (51.19), with mixed signals in MTF analysis: resistance-heavy on 1D, balanced on weekly. This setup requires traders to be prepared for both directions – will we watch for breakout or breakdown?

Current Market Situation

SOL's current price is $138.88, traded in the $137.82-$144.33 range with a -2.90% drop over the last 24 hours. Volume at moderate $6.23B level. Although the overall trend is uptrend, the short-term technical picture is bearish: Price below EMA20 ($138.96), MACD histogram negative, and Supertrend giving bearish signal towards $146.02 resistance. RSI at 51.19 in neutral zone, no overbought/oversold.

Critical levels are as follows: Supports $138.4563 (high score 96/100), $134.0685 (74/100), $127.3963 (63/100). Resistances $139.1626 (64/100), $141.1768 (66/100), $142.8523 (69/100). In Multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis, 15 strong levels detected: 1D (1S/2R), 3D (2S/4R), 1W (3S/3R) – resistance pressure prominent in higher timeframes. Market unaware, low volatility. Traders can gain depth by following the SOL Spot Analysis and SOL Futures Analysis pages.

Scenario 1: Bullish Scenario

How Does This Scenario Unfold?

The bullish scenario is triggered by the price breaking above the $139.1626 resistance with increased volume. Once this level is surpassed, momentum builds towards $141.1768 and $142.8523. Key signals: RSI crossing above 60, MACD line crossing above signal line, and Supertrend turning bullish. Must stay within the uptrend channel on the daily chart, with +20% volume increase observed. For MTF confirmation, strong rebound from supports on 3D/1W required. If this occurs, short-term bearish signals are invalidated, and buyers enter. Example: If price holds $138.4563 support and pivots up with a volume spike, this scenario strengthens. Traders should wait for a close above EMA20 for invalidation – stay cautious without it.

Target Levels

First target $151.8854 (score 22/100, potential R:R 1:2+). Once surpassed, Supertrend resistance at $146.02 is tested, then extends to $155+ weekly resistances. Fibonacci extension levels (0.618-1.0) support these targets. 1W uptrend confirmation required for further targets. In this scenario, risk/reward ratio attractive: 1:3 R:R possible with $138.46 stop and $151.88 target. However, no aggressive positions before $142.85 break.

Scenario 2: Bearish Scenario

Risk Factors

The bearish scenario activates with a close below $138.4563 support (96/100 score). If this level is breached, momentum shifts to $134.0685 and $127.3963. Triggers: Deepening MACD histogram, RSI dropping below 40, and volume increasing on downside. While Supertrend remains bearish, staying below EMA20 strengthens shorts. MTF shows abundance of resistances on 3D/1W (4R/3D, 2R/1D) supporting selling pressure. Additional risk: BTC dominance increase or liquidity withdrawal in overall crypto market. Traders should distinguish low-volume support breaks in volume profile – watch for fakeouts! Rejection at $139.16 resistance reinforces this scenario.

Protection Levels

First protection $138.4563 (main stop-loss), intermediate $134.0685 on break, final target $127.3963 (score 51/100, high probability). For deeper drop, watch $120 psychological zone. R:R wise, 1:2+ ratio with short entry at $142.85 and $127 target. 1W support break required for further bearish targets. Invalidation in this scenario: Strong close above $142.8523 brings back longs.

Which Scenario to Watch?

Decision-making levels: $138.4563 (swing point) and $139.1626/$142.8523 resistance cluster. Bull trigger: $139.16 break with volume + RSI/MACD bullish cross. Bear: Close below $138.46 + volume spike. What to monitor: Volume profile (increase on upside or downside?), order flow (spot vs futures divergence), MTF alignment (1D bearish but 1W uptrend conflict). Watch for divergences: RSI rising while price falls = bull, opposite = bear. BTC correlation (0.85%) critical – BTC above $90K supports bull. Check differences on SOL Spot and Futures. Clear invalidation criteria in every scenario: Bull with $138.46 break, bear with $142.85 break closes positions.

Conclusion and Monitoring Notes

SOL's neutral setup offers traders flexibility: Uptrend background keeps bull alive, short-term bearish signals sustain downside. Monitoring list: 1) Hourly closes at $138.4563/$139.1626, 2) Volume >$7B spike, 3) RSI/MACD divergences, 4) MTF level reactions (especially 3D resistances), 5) BTC and overall market sentiment. Weekly close will be direction-determining. Let this analysis help refine your decisions – always prioritize risk management. Visit spot and futures pages for updates.