TON: Rise or Fall? January 13, 2026 Scenario Analysis

TON is experiencing sideways consolidation around $1.75 and is trapped between critical support-resistance levels. While RSI is in the neutral zone (45.88), MACD shows a positive histogram, but it's trading below the short-term EMA20. These mixed signals make both bullish and bearish scenarios equally likely; traders should be prepared for both directions.

Current Market Situation

TON is currently trading at the $1.75 level, showing sideways movement in the $1.71-$1.76 range with a slight 0.40% increase over the last 24 hours. Volume remains at a moderate $52.21M level, and the overall trend can be described as sideways. Looking at technical indicators, RSI at 45.88 is in the neutral zone, giving neither overbought nor oversold signals. Although the MACD's positive histogram indicates bullish momentum, the price remaining below EMA20 ($1.75) dominates short-term bearish pressure. The Supertrend indicator is giving a bearish signal, and the next resistance stands out at $1.84.

In multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis, a total of 14 strong levels were identified across 1D, 3D, and 1W timeframes: 2 supports/4 resistances on 1D, 2S/2R on 3D, and 3S/4R distribution on 1W. Critical supports are $1.7425 (strength score 71/100) and $1.6850 (64/100); resistances are $1.7484 (88/100), $1.7780 (63/100), $1.8380 (67/100). These levels should be monitored as pivot points that will determine the price direction. There are no breaking developments specific to TON in the market news flow, creating an environment where technical factors take center stage.

Scenario 1: Bullish Scenario

How Does This Scenario Occur?

For the bullish scenario to materialize, the $1.7484 resistance (88/100 strength score) must be clearly broken first. This level is a strong pivot near the 24-hour high, and if passed with a high-volume close, an increase in momentum is expected. The MACD's positive histogram plays a supportive role, while RSI moving above 50 confirms the transition from neutral to bullish territory. Staying stably above EMA20 ($1.75) triggers a short-term trend change. In a broader MTF context, overcoming the 1D resistance density (4R) brings 3D and 1W supports into play. The scenario strengthens with volume increase (above 20-30% of current $52M) and a potential altcoin rally. Cancellation criterion: The bullish setup becomes invalid if $1.7425 support breaks.

Steps to monitor in this scenario: (1) $1.7484 breakout + volume confirmation, (2) $1.7780 test and retest, (3) Momentum toward $1.8380. Supertrend turning bullish provides additional confirmation. Traders can manage risk in long positions with a $1.7425 stop-loss, but should always conduct their own analysis.

Target Levels

First target $1.7780 (63/100), which is the short-term extension zone. Then $1.8380 (67/100) as the main resistance; if broken, it reaches the psychological target of $1.9500 (28/100). This move offers a 11.4% R/R ratio from the current price ($1.75 to $1.9500). For more aggressive targets, 1W timeframe levels should be monitored, but resistance density carries slowdown risk.

Scenario 2: Bearish Scenario

Risk Factors

The bearish scenario is triggered by a close below the $1.7425 support (71/100). This level is critical near the recent low, and if the breakdown is supported by volume, bearish momentum accelerates. Remaining below short-term EMA20 and Supertrend's bearish signal are already increasing the pressure. If RSI drops below 40, selling pressure intensifies before oversold. In MTF, scarcity of 1D supports (2S) and 1W resistance superiority (4R) can create a cascade effect. General market weakness (e.g., BTC dominance increase) or volume decline acts as a trigger. Cancellation criterion: The bearish setup is disrupted if $1.7484 resistance breaks.

Items to monitor: (1) $1.7425 breakdown + volume, (2) $1.6850 test, (3) Absence of divergence in momentum indicators. Traders should use stops above $1.7484 in shorts to minimize risk.

Protection Levels

First protection $1.6850 (64/100); if broken, $1.6225 (31/100) becomes the main target. This level is 7.3% below the current price and balanced in terms of R/R. 3D/1W supports (total 5S) come into play here, but overall resistance pressure supports the downside. For deeper levels, the 1W timeframe should be followed.

Which Scenario to Watch?

Decision-making triggers are clear: For bullish, daily close above $1.7484 + RSI>50 + volume increase; For bearish, close below $1.7425 + Supertrend confirmation + RSI<40. These levels have high strength scores (71-88/100), so false breakout risk is low. MTF alignment is critical: If 1D breakout aligns with 3D/1W, the scenario strengthens. Volume profile and MACD divergences serve as additional filters. Access detailed charts from the TON Spot Analysis and TON Futures Analysis pages. In both scenarios, keep invalidation levels tight and avoid emotional trading.

Conclusion and Monitoring Notes

TON's sideways consolidation makes the $1.7425-$1.7484 range the breakout point. Both scenarios are equally likely; upside supported by momentum signals, downside by technical pressure. Monitoring list: (1) Volume changes, (2) Wicks at key levels, (3) RSI/MACD crosses, (4) BTC correlation. Mark levels on daily/4H charts, set alerts. This analysis is a tool to enhance your own decisions; the market is dynamic, update continuously.

From an educational perspective, scenario analysis balances risk and keeps you prepared. Visit the TON Spot and TON Futures pages for detailed spot and futures data.