AVAX Technical Analysis February 18, 2026: Weekly Strategy

AVAX is stuck in a narrow range ($9.00-$9.29) at $9.07 with a 1.41% weekly decline; the main trend is downward but positive signals in the MACD histogram increase the likelihood of an accumulation phase. Bitcoin's weak trend is creating pressure on altcoins, while the $9.00 support stands out as a critical turning point.

AVAX in the Weekly Market Summary

AVAX closed the last week at $9.07 and showed a slight 1.41% decline. The trading range narrowed between $9.00-$9.29, signaling reduced volatility, while the volume profile remained stable at $166.62M. The market structure generally maintains downward trend dominance, with RSI at 37.35 approaching the oversold region. Positive histogram formation in MACD suggests short-term momentum recovery, but the lack of a close above EMA20 ($9.67) strengthens the short-term bearish bias. In the macro context, there is no significant news flow, but Bitcoin's downtrend is weighing on the altcoin ecosystem. For portfolio managers, this week can be seen as a consolidation period testing the trend structure's integrity; accumulation phase characteristics are starting to emerge.

Trend Structure and Market Phases

Long-Term Trend Analysis

The long-term trend structure reflects a clear downtrend on weekly and monthly charts. AVAX has been moving in a descending channel, forming lower highs and lows on higher timeframes since the October 2025 peak. The trend filter gives a bearish signal, with $10.93 resistance as the main barrier. In terms of market cycles, signals for a transition from distribution phase to accumulation have been increasing since fall 2025; RSI declining to 37 and the MACD histogram turning positive indicate the trend's integrity is starting to be questioned. However, per the principle that 'the trend remains intact until broken,' the downtrend should hold as long as the main $9.00 support is not breached. On a portfolio horizon (weekly/monthly), this structure encourages patient accumulation for position traders.

Accumulation/Distribution Analysis

In terms of accumulation/distribution patterns, the current narrow range ($9.00-$9.29) exhibits re-accumulation phase characteristics in Wyckoff methodology. Stable volume profile and low volatility imply smart money is quietly accumulating. Rejections were observed at $9.1450 resistance for distribution patterns, but buyer interest is increasing in recent candle formations (doji-like closes). Accumulation phase features: Low RSI, positive MACD divergence, and multi-timeframe support confluence. If it holds above $9.00, accumulation could complete, enabling a transition to markup phase; otherwise, distribution continues. Strategically, this phase transition will shape AVAX's Q1 2026 cycle.

Multi-Timeframe Confluence

Daily Chart View

On the daily chart, AVAX is squeezed between $9.0050 support (score 62/100) and $9.1450 resistance (67/100). The 1D shows strong confluence with 2 supports/2 resistances; bearish short-term trend intact below EMA20. RSI at 37 shows divergence hinting at bullishness, MACD histogram positive. Daily candles appear to have successfully tested support with hammer-like formations. Confluence: 1D/3D support cluster at $9.00 region; downside break triggers $7.55, upside opens $9.92. For position traders, the daily view suggests waiting for a $9.14 breakout.

Weekly Chart View

From a weekly perspective, the $9.07 close tests trend lows within the downtrend channel. 1W shows 2 supports/3 resistances (total 9 strong levels across timeframes), emphasizing $10.93 main resistance. Supertrend bearish, but weekly RSI near oversold. Declining volume signals accumulation; if channel lower band ($9.00) holds, trend reversal confluence increases. Weekly structure aligns with monthly downtrend but shows weakening signs with positive MACD. For long-term portfolios, a weekly close above $9.67 EMA20 confirms bullish shift.

Critical Decision Points

Main supports: $9.0050 (high score, multi-TF confluence), $7.5500 (secondary, below channel). Resistances: $9.1450 (short-term pivot), $9.9184 and $10.93 (trend filter). These levels will determine direction; $9.00 break carries downside risk to $4.5417 (score 22), above $9.1450 opens upside to $13.0800 (score 26). Strategic R/R: Upside potential 44% (from 9.07 to 13.08), downside 50% (to 4.54); 1:2 targeted entries recommended for risk management. Inflection point: $9.00 - this will define the trend structure.

Weekly Strategy Recommendation

In the Bullish Case

Bullish scenario: Daily close above $9.1450 targets EMA20 ($9.67), then extension to $9.92 and $13.08. Long positions above $9.00, stop below $8.95; target cascade: First 61.8% Fib $10.93, then channel top. Weekly momentum increase expected with accumulation phase confluence. Monitor spot market for detailed AVAX spot analysis.

In the Bearish Case

Bearish scenario: Break below $9.00 targets $7.55 and $4.54. Shorts on $9.1450 rejection, stop above $9.30; distribution patterns activate. Downtrend remains intact, triggered by BTC weakness. Manage leveraged risks with AVAX futures market data.

Bitcoin Correlation

AVAX shows high correlation with BTC (0.85+); BTC in downtrend at $67,833 (24h -0.87%), supertrend bearish. If BTC supports $66,566/$62,910 break, AVAX loses $9.00; recovery above BTC resistances $68,137/$71,276 triggers altcoin rally. Rising BTC dominance cautions alts; monitor $0.000133 support on AVAX/BTC pair. Follow BTC context in AVAX and other analyses.

Conclusion: Key Points for Next Week

Next week focus: $9.00-$9.1450 breakout/breakdown, BTC $66k test, and RSI divergence. Trend structure shifts bullish intact above $9.00, distribution accelerates below. Position traders should remain patient and wait for confluence; accumulation potential high in macro cycle.