BTC January 15, 2026: Preparing for Critical Resistance Test with Strong Upward Momentum

Bitcoin is advancing with strong upward momentum at the 96.738 dollar level, giving overbought signals as the RSI on the daily chart rises above 70. The 24-hour 1.33% gain and 29 billion dollar volume suggest that bulls hold control, but Supertrend still issuing a bear signal and the critical test ahead of the 97.484 dollar resistance is keeping market participants cautious. Breaking this level could open the door to a new rally toward 115,000 dollars.

Market Outlook and Current Status

The Bitcoin market is moving within a clear uptrend in mid-January 2026. With the current price stabilizing around 96.738 dollars, a 1.33% rise was recorded in the last 24 hours. The daily range extended from 94.559 dollars to 97.924 dollars, while trading volume reached 29 billion dollars, revealing that market liquidity remains strong. These figures indicate that overall market sentiment has shifted in favor of bulls; however, the lack of major news flow in recent periods ties price movements largely to technical factors.

Examined in a multi-timeframe context, the daily (1D) chart maintains its uptrend, with supportive signals also observed on weekly (1W) and 3-day (3D) frames. Bitcoin is trading well above EMA20 (91.448 dollars), confirming the strength of the short-term trend. Despite volatility since the beginning of the year, market capitalization has surpassed 1.9 trillion dollars. Ongoing purchases by institutional investors and ETF flows stand out as background factors supporting this rise. Nevertheless, macroeconomic uncertainties—such as U.S. interest rate policies—continue to cast a shadow and keep the risk of a sudden correction on the table.

Movements in altcoins across the market are also reinforcing Bitcoin's leadership. With dominance steady above 55%, ETH and other major coins are showing performance parallel to BTC. Although the volume increase is concentrated in spot markets, as detailed on our BTC Spot Analysis pages, it is supported by the return of retail investors. The Fed's meetings in the coming weeks could be a key catalyst determining the fate of this trend.

Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch

Support Zones

Support levels are critically important, especially in multi-timeframe alignment. The strongest support is at 90.982 dollars (score: 69/100), coinciding with Fibonacci retracement points on daily and weekly charts. This level functions as a base that has successfully defended recent monthly lows, and a drop below it could trigger a deeper correction. Secondary supports immediately above include 95.505 dollars (score: 62/100) and 93.617 dollars (score: 62/100); these zones show confluence with pivot points on 1D and 3D timeframes.

In total, 12 strong levels have been identified: 3 supports/2 resistances on 1D, 2/2 on 3D, and 3/3 on 1W. This confluence turns the 90,000-95,000 dollar band into a 'safe haven.' Historically, Bitcoin has made strong bounces from these supports; for example, similar levels in the fall of 2025 marked the start of a rally. Investors can use these zones in stop-loss strategies during potential pullbacks.

Resistance Barriers

On the resistance side, the first and most critical barrier is at 97.484 dollars (score: 82/100), just above the current price and coinciding with the 24-hour high. Breaking this level could carry short-term targets to 102.863 dollars (score: 60/100); the upper resistance at 104.025 dollars indicated by Supertrend poses a larger obstacle. These levels, aligned with the weekly chart trendline, appear difficult to surpass without volume increase.

MTF confluence is evident here as well: 1W resistances point to the psychological 100,000 dollar threshold. In a breakout scenario, leveraged positions highlighted on our BTC Futures Analysis platforms could come into play. Otherwise, a quick pullback should be expected in case of rejection.

Momentum Indicators and Trend Strength

Momentum indicators paint a mixed picture. RSI at 70.41 has entered overbought territory; this serves as a warning for short-term consolidation or correction. According to historical data, when RSI is above 70, Bitcoin has a 60% probability of needing a 5-10 day breather. In contrast, the MACD histogram is positive and expanding upward, showing that bull momentum remains dominant. The MACD line trading above the signal line confirms trend strength.

EMAs are bullish: Price is well above EMA20 (91.448 dollars), and the EMA50/200 golden cross is intact. Although Supertrend still shows a bear signal (resistance at 104.025 dollars), daily closes hold potential to flip this signal. Across multiple timeframes, ADX above 25 keeps trend strength at medium-high levels. As Bollinger Bands contract, a volatility explosion is anticipated—this could signal major moves in the breakout direction. Overall, momentum favors bulls, but RSI divergences should be monitored.

Risk Assessment and Trading Outlook

The risk/reward ratio in the current setup is attractive for longs: From 96.738 dollars to the 115,000 dollar bull target (about 19% return) offers a 6% risk to the main support at 90.982 dollars, yielding a 1:3 R/R. In a bearish scenario, a drop to 80,000 dollars (17% loss) is possible if 93.617 dollars breaks. Probabilities are balanced: 55% bull breakout (with MACD and volume support), 45% bear correction (RSI overbought and Supertrend).

The trading outlook is neutral-bullish in the short term; a close above 97.484 dollars is awaited. Long-term uptrend intact, but macro risks (geopolitical tensions, regulation) could increase volatility. Monitoring BTC Spot Analysis and futures markets, position management at confluence levels is essential. Whether the market heads to new highs or correction via critical tests, the next 48 hours will be decisive.