BTC Technical Analysis 18 February 2026: Risk and Stop Loss

Bitcoin is currently trading around 67.400$ and a short-term downtrend dominates; if support levels break while volatility is high, there's a risk of a quick decline below 60.000$. Investors should manage their positions with capital protection-focused stop loss strategies and target a risk/reward ratio of at least 1:2.

Market Volatility and Risk Environment

The BTC/USD pair is trading at the 67.403$ level with a 1.85% decline over the last 24 hours. The daily range was between 66.621$ - 68.762$, and volume remained at a moderate level of 16.32 billion$. Market volatility is high according to the ATR (Average True Range) indicator; this requires caution against sudden price movements. RSI is at 34.19 and approaching the oversold region, but this alone does not signal a recovery as the overall trend is downward. The Supertrend indicator is giving a bearish signal and resistance is set at 77.893$. The price not being above EMA20 (72.240$) confirms short-term bearish momentum.

In multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis, a total of 10 strong levels were identified across 1D, 3D, and 1W charts: 3 supports/3 resistances on 1D, 1 support/2 resistances on 3D, 2 supports/3 resistances on 1W. These levels create a risk environment that increases volatility. On the fundamental side, Bitcoin mining company Hive's announcement of a 91 million$ net loss and Metaplanet's 619 million$ valuation loss are negatively affecting market sentiment. These news items could pave the way for sudden dumps by increasing liquidity risk. BTC spot analysis on the spot market BTC spot analysis, and BTC futures risk in futures trading BTC futures risk should be followed.

Risk/Reward Ratio Assessment

Potential Reward: Target Levels

In a bullish scenario, it is possible for the price to break the 68.047$ resistance (66/100 score), reach 71.216$ (60/100), and finally 78.145$ (64/100). The long-term target is being tracked at 97.000$, offering approximately 44% upside potential from the current price. However, strong volume and an increase in BTC dominance are required to reach these targets. When calculating the risk/reward ratio, dividing the distance from entry price to target by the stop loss distance is critical: for example, a 1:2 ratio targets the reward being twice the risk.

Potential Risk: Stop Levels

The bearish target is set at 40.000$; there is nearly 40% downside risk from the current 67.403$. Main supports are at 66.597$ (71/100 score, strongest), 62.909$ (66/100), and 60.000$ (64/100). Breaking these levels would deepen the trend. Short-term invalidation occurs below 66.597$; this level includes an ATR-based buffer below the recent daily lows. Investors should use these stop levels to limit losses – for example, a stop at 66.597$ from the current price reduces risk to around 1.2%.

Stop Loss Placement Strategies

Stop loss placement is the cornerstone of capital protection. Structural stop strategy: Place it below the last swing low (66.621$) by adding an ATR multiplier (e.g., 1.5x ATR) at 1-2% – this prevents whipsaws. Support-based stop: Below the 66.597$ level, with a 0.5-1% buffer according to score weight. Volatility-adjusted stop: Widen the stop distance during high ATR periods, narrow it in low volatility. Trailing stop alternative: Use a dynamic stop by following EMA20 in rising prices. Remember, setting the stop loss too tight leads to early exits, too loose leads to capital erosion. Always backtest to validate your strategy.

Position Sizing Considerations

Position sizing is the heart of risk management and is calculated using the Kelly Criterion or fixed risk percentage. Kelly formula: (p * (b+1) - 1)/b, where p = win probability, b = reward/risk ratio. In practice, risk 1-2% of account balance per trade – for example, maximum 1,000-2,000$ risk on a 100,000$ balance. Formula: Position size = (Risk Amount) / (Entry - Stop Distance). Include volatility: Reduce position in high ATR. Diversification rule: Total risk should not exceed 5% of the portfolio. These concepts prevent emotional decisions and ensure long-term capital growth. Keep leverage low in spot or futures (futures BTC) (max 3-5x).

Risk Management Outcomes

Key takeaways: Long positions are high risk in a downtrend; even for shorts, monitor the 60.000$ support. Target a minimum risk/reward of 1:2, use wide stops due to volatility. News flow (mining losses) adds fundamental risk. 1% risk rule and MTF levels are essential for capital protection. This analysis is prepared with Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal's market views and methodology.