ETH: Rise or Fall? January 15, 2026 Scenario Analysis

Ethereum (ETH) is standing at a critical crossroads at the $3,351 level. While the short-term uptrend continues, RSI at 64.76 shows bullish momentum but Supertrend is giving a bearish signal and resistances are prominent. Both scenarios are possible: breakout with strong volume or pullback with rejection. Traders should stay prepared by monitoring the triggers.

Current Market Situation

ETH is trading at $3,351.49 as of January 15, 2026. In the last 24 hours, it rose %1.86, moving in the $3,278 - $3,402.89 range with volume recorded at $23.48 billion. Although the overall trend is uptrend, technical indicators are giving mixed signals.

RSI(14) is at 64.76, in the neutral-bullish zone but approaching overbought territory. MACD is bullish with a positive histogram, price is trading above EMA20 ($3,260.47), and short-term bullish structure dominates. However, Supertrend is giving a bearish signal and the $3,516.24 resistance forms a strong barrier.

Key levels: Supports $3,335.89 (score 79/100), $3,263.99 (64/100), $3,165.01 (64/100). Resistances $3,439.87 (70/100), $3,375.88 (62/100). Multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis shows 14 strong levels on 1D/3D/1W: Balanced distribution (1D: 3S/3R, 3D:1S/3R, 1W:3S/3R). This indicates the market is close to making a decision. News flow is calm, volatility is low, but the overall crypto market is watching ETH.

Scenario 1: Bullish Scenario

How This Scenario Unfolds?

The bullish scenario is triggered by ETH breaking the $3,375.88 and $3,439.87 resistances with increased volume. If RSI rises above 70 and maintains momentum, MACD histogram expands, and persistence above EMA20 is achieved. Supertrend turning bullish (close above $3,516.24) provides confirmation. A strong green daily candle close and breakout above $3,400 on the 1W chart show buyer dominance. In this case, the short-term uptrend moves to 3D/1W levels. Trigger: Close above $3,439.87 + %20+ volume increase. Invalidated: Drop below $3,335.89.

Target Levels

First target $3,516 (Supertrend resistance), then $3,600 (previous swing high). More aggressive $3,800 (1W Fibonacci extension). Risk/reward ratio (R/R) calculated from current price: $3,351 entry, stop $3,335 (R:16$), target $3,516 (RR:1:10). Check detailed charts on the ETH Spot Analysis page.

Scenario 2: Bearish Scenario

Risk Factors

The bearish scenario begins with rejection at $3,375.88 resistance and break of $3,335.89 support. RSI drops below 60, MACD histogram narrows or turns negative. Supertrend remains bearish and selling pressure increases with volume on the downside. Red candle close on 1D and drop below $3,263 on 3D triggers it. There is risk of general market weakness (BTC correlation) or sudden selling after low volatility. Trigger: Close below $3,335.89 + volume spike. Invalidated: Breakout above $3,439.87.

Protection Levels

First protection $3,335.89 (high-score support), if broken then $3,263.99 and $3,165.01. Aggressive target $3,100 (1W support). R/R: $3,351 short entry, stop $3,375 (R:24$), target $3,263 (RR:1:4). For futures, follow ETH Futures Analysis, be cautious with leveraged positions.

Which Scenario to Watch?

Key triggers: Bull $3,439.87 + volume, Bear $3,335.89 breakdown. Confirmation signals: RSI divergence (bull: positive, bear: negative), MACD crossover, MTF alignment. Volume is critical: increasing for bull, selling volume for bear. Monitor 4H/1D closes. While the market is neutral, prepare for both directions – balanced long/short portfolio or wait-and-see.

Conclusion and Monitoring Notes

ETH balance is delicate: uptrend continuation or correction? Monitoring points: $3,375-$3,439 range (decision zone), RSI 70/50 levels, volume trend. Visit ETH Spot and Futures pages for daily updates. Do your own analysis, prioritize risk management.