DOGE Market Structure: January 23, 2026 Trend Analysis

Downtrend dominant - LH/LL structure continues, above $0.1269 critical for BOS.

Market Structure Overview

DOGE is trading at $0.13 as of January 23, 2026, and is in a clear downtrend. The market structure is characterized by recently formed lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL) patterns. This indicates bearish momentum; price is forming new lows without testing previous swing highs ($0.1348 and $0.1269). Trading below the short-term EMA20 ($0.13) supports this bearish structure. RSI at 39.91 is approaching oversold, but the MACD's negative histogram maintains downside pressure. Multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis identified 13 strong levels across 1D, 3D, and 1W timeframes: 2 support/2 resistance on 1D, 2S/3R on 3D, 2S/3R on 1W. Overall structure remains bearish intact, but a break below $0.1200 support increases CHoCH (Change of Character) risk. Staying below $0.1269 is required for trend continuation; above triggers bullish BOS (Break of Structure). Market is open to volatility - no news flow, but BTC correlation is key.

Trend Analysis: Up or Down?

Uptrend Signals

Higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL) sequence required for upside. Not present currently; move up from recent swing low $0.1243 failed to break $0.1269. Potential bullish continuation target $0.1738 (low score:31/100), but needs close above EMA20 and RSI 50+. Break of $0.1348 swing high forms first HH and signals trend change. Supertrend gives bearish signal, but divergences should be monitored.

Downtrend Risk

Downtrend dominant: LH/LL structure clear - recent LH $0.1269, LL $0.1200. Price rejected at $0.13 resistance, -1.39% loss in 24h. Bearish breakdown target $0.0774 (score:22/100). Break of $0.1200 confirms new LL, bearish CHoCH. MACD negative, RSI 40 sustains bearish momentum. LL sequence continues on 1W timeframe.

Structure Break (BOS) Levels

Bullish BOS: Daily close above $0.1269 (score 75/100) - breaks recent LH, starts HL sequence. Then targets $0.1348 (64/100). Bearish BOS: Close below $0.1200 (66/100) - breaks recent LL, opens path to $0.0774. $0.1243 (65/100) intermediate support. These levels invalidate structure: LH break for bullish BOS, LL break for bearish. Monitor 1D/3D alignment in MTF; 3R level dominant on 1W.

Swing Points and Importance

Recent Swing Highs

$0.1269 (75/100): Near resistance, important as LH - break signals HH. $0.1348 (64/100): Upper resistance, key for bullish BOS. These points test trend continuation; staying below strengthens LH/LL. Price action: Watch pin bars or engulfings.

Recent Swing Lows

$0.1200 (66/100): Critical support, LL - break accelerates bearish. $0.1243 (65/100): Intermediate support, bounce potential. These lows must hold for HL formation; break disrupts structure. 2S level strong on 1D.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC at $89,538 in downtrend (-0.49% 24h), Supertrend bearish. DOGE highly correlated with BTC; BTC break below $89,127 support increases general altcoin pressure ($0.1200 DOGE risk). If BTC resistances $91,021/$92,961 cleared, DOGE relief - $0.1269 BOS chance rises. BTC.Dominance high, alts weak; BTC drop to $84,681 makes DOGE $0.0774 target realistic. Watch: BTC swing low $86,735.

Structural Outlook and Expectations

Currently LH/LL bearish structure intact, trend downward. BOS above $0.1269 signals bullish shift, below $0.1200 bearish continuation. MTF alignment bearish; volatility high. For trading: Short on $0.13 rejection, long on BOS confirmation. Risk: BTC dump. Structure educational: HH/HL bullish, LH/LL bearish; BOS with CHoCH changes it. Careful management required.